2022 Fantasy Baseball: Dual Aces Strategy
The fantasy world is an ever-changing market. More information and tools help drafters make better-educated decisions each year. When I first came to the high-stakes market in 2004, I sat in my seat, and I took the player I thought was the most valuable to my team. It was the purest time in fantasy baseball. It was about understanding the player pool and having vision within the draft. The better I see the future, the better I predict draft flow and future opportunities.
MORE: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
Early days of fantasy baseball
As each year passes, fantasy managers have more information to help them become better players. After the first year in the high-stakes market, winning results and the final category totals helped fantasy teams better prepare for future years. In addition, these pieces of information helped drafters plan their strategy for the following year.
As the high-stakes fantasy market grew, fantasy managers had more draft results to help them make educated decisions within the draft. The draft flow was a significant part of data for fantasy managers who had the foresight to see the critical components for their team development while understanding how they wanted to build their teams.
This next tool of information was called ADPs (average draft position). Of course, each draft will be different, but fantasy teams now know how other drafters felt about the player pool.
There was always an information edge in the early days of fantasy baseball. In the home leagues, there were fantasy managers who were more informed than their competition. The more knowledge a drafter had, the bigger the edge over their competition.
The most challenging part of fantasy baseball is pitching. A fantasy manager with a complete understanding of the pitching inventory had an advantage over his opponents. The knowledge imbalance between drafters created strategies like the LIMA plan, formulated by Ron Shandler.
The term LIMA means Low Investment Mound Aces. By understanding the pitching inventory, a fantasy manager had the opportunity to buy his pitching staff at lower prices. Sometimes a knowledgeable drafter could find an ace for the small investment of $1 in auction leagues.
From a fantasy perspective, the LIMA plan is a great tool. It is a strategy build around a theory that fantasy teams must embrace to succeed in this game. The goal is always trying to find top talent at a discount. Most of the early fantasy baseball games were American or National auction leagues, which stressed the importance of finding good players at low prices.
Fantasy baseball rankings: Hitters | Pitchers
Next generation of the game
As the fantasy game evolved, mixed leagues became more prominent. The high-stakes market introduced the 15-team mixed league formats. It was a non-trading format, which put a premium on drafting and managing during the season. This game's bottom line is that it's you against the player pool. The goal is to out-draft your opponents and out-manage them during the year. Each fantasy team competes with two goals; the first is the league prize, and the second is the overall title.
Understanding draft flow
Each year, the inventory flow changes after fantasy managers have a history of what has won in the past, plus they understand their failures. For example, in 2004, the first round of closers went from rounds four to six. As the game has progressed, fantasy managers better understand that the closer position is more volatile each year. Therefore, they are more willing to push the position back or even cheat it with the hopes they can solve this problem on the waiver wire.
In 2022, the high number of injuries to front-end starters led to a decline in innings pitched. This change in value for starting pitching led to drafters pushing the button for elite closer earlier than ever before, creating a rise in value for any dependable closing arm in the early draft season.
A prevailing theory early in high-stakes games was to cheat pitching. I've heard it over and over from industry experts. They wanted to build their offense first and address starting pitching later, which works in concept. Unfortunately, this idea had more success in leagues with drafters who had an edge in knowledge or their format offered trading.
Each year fantasy teams spend more time doing research. They understand pitching is the toughest part of the game, and it is often the key to winning. A seasoned high-stakes player will do a better job of making comparisons between player positions while looking for an edge.
For example, if I planned to draft an outfielder in round three, I would look at the pitching inventory in that same round and compare it to a later part of the draft. If my initial plan were to draft a starting pitcher in round six, I would compare the other hitters in that round. I would ask myself, am I gaining enough of an edge taking this bat in round three while choosing a particular pitcher in round six?
I then would reverse the thought process with the pitcher in round three and the hitter in round six. It would create a series of decisions with the ultimate goal of finding the right path to a championship team. There will be different draft opportunities each year, and a fantasy manager must find them to succeed.
Dual aces
In the post-steroid era, pitchers became much more attractive in the early rounds of the drafts. As a result, the strategy of cheating pitching is happening less and less. The new vision in a fantasy manager’s mind is the Dual Aces concept.
In the early years of the high-stakes market, drafters were more willing to push starting pitching back because it can change quickly based on injuries and information.
In 2010, some fantasy managers went to the draft looking for two elite starters. As more owners sat down at the draft table with this thought process, it started to change pitching draft flow.
Only a handful of starting pitchers were drafted in the first four rounds in the previous years. However, the Dual Aces concept forced fantasy managers to start drafting starting pitching earlier and in some drafts, it launched an incredible run on starting pitching.
In a non-trading format, I can’t solve my problems by trading. Competing for an overall prize forces teams to draft a more balanced roster. If I cheat pitching and fail, I’m at the mercy of the free-agent pool. Unfortunately, the competition during drafts for pitching is exceptionally high.
I could sit down at the draft table and like seven young pitchers with upside. These players might get drafted anywhere from round 10 to round 16. When I reach that part of the draft, I’d be lucky to get two of them because other drafters have the same feeling about the pitching inventory. If I miss the key players, it forces me to draft players I feel have less upside.
A changing pitching landscape
In the high-stakes market in 2011, the Dual Aces concept continued. In that season, teams from the front of the draft tried to improve their pitching, so they would draft two starting pitchers on the 4/5 turn.
When this happened, other teams in the middle of the draft felt like they were getting beat by the top pitching inventory going off the table earlier than expected. As a result, many drafters responded by changing their draft strategy. They essentially pushed their fourth hitter back to the sixth round and started drafting more pitchers in the 4th round.
When the backend of the draft saw this happening, they began to see the quality of hitters in the late 5th round rise. It allowed them to change the way they drafted the nucleus of their team. Some backend drafters started to double up on elite starters on the 3/4 turn.
When more fantasy teams wanted two elite starters, it started a domino effect, leading to massive pitching runs in the fourth round.
The edge of elite arms
Based on my research, it is relatively easy to show the impact of two foundation aces. However, I dismissed the 2020 data due to the small sample size.
Last year the top two starters combined for 387.0 innings, a drop of 11.1 percent from 2019 (435.3 innings). As a result, the Dual Ace strategy had less impact value in 2021 compared to 2019. To show the potential ceiling of two stud arms, I’m going to revert to the excellent seasons by Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander in 2019.
In 2021, in a high-stakes league with 2,388 teams in a 12-team format with non-trading and once a week pitching moves, here are the final stats for the top 10 percent, top 20 percent, and medium for league stats for all the pitching categories:
Note: A fantasy manager doesn’t need to rank in the top 10, or 20 percent in innings pitched, hits allowed, or walks. In the above grid, I used the baseline for ERA and WHIP to back in the stats for hits to match the total for the higher number of innings pitched while using 2.5 walks per nine innings.
The goal is to build the best pitching staff possible with the best quality. Most of the time, a high quantity of innings leads to more risk in ERA and WHIP while hopefully excelling in wins and strikeouts.
In the SIscores, I want to determine each player’s value with a plus or minus score when added to my team based on previous league stats, final season stats, and upcoming projections.
In 2019, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were the most valuable players in roto formats with five categories (Wins, ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, and Saves). Here’s how each player finished in each category and their final value in SIscore:
A fantasy manager drafting Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole would gain 16.07 or 15.25 league points in a 12-team 5 X 5 Roto format. The key would be finding the rest of the pitching staff to give your team the medium league stats for the other five categories.
Compared to last season, Max Scherzer (9.19) and Walker Buehler (8.25) were less impactful by SIscore than Cole and Verlander in 2019. Despite regression in the 2022 targets for the pitching categories due to fewer innings pitched by the top starters, drafters continue to invest in their foundation aces in the high-stakes market (eight starters have ADPs inside the top 30 picks).
Note: All starting pitchers have the save losing value in saves (-1.29) in 2022.
A look at one ace
If I subtract Verlander’s innings pitched in 2019 off the medium inning total (1,350), my team would need my other eight pitchers to post a 3.998 ERA and 1.230 WHIP with 76 wins (86 wins divided by nine pitchers X eight pitching slots) and 1,258 strikeouts (1,415 strikeouts divided nine pitchers x eight pitchers). So here’s a look at Verlander's final stats in 2019 added to those baseline medium stats:
Based on the earlier stats to finish in the top 20 percent in each of the pitching categories, Here’s how the new pitching stats matched up in those targets:
A Verlander team with a baseline of league average pitching stats would move almost to the top 20 percent in the league in wins (95 to 96), close to the top 20 percent in ERA (3.764 – 3.764), almost the top 10 percent in WHIP (1.159 – 1.157), and about the top 15 percent in strikeouts (1,558 – 1,525 was the 20 percent total).
Dual ace impact
Based on the same thought process, here’s a look at a team’s success if they happened to draft Verlander and Cole on the same team:
This team structure pushed this team to elite status in four categories (wins – 110, ERA – 3.529, WHIP – 1.107, and strikeouts – 1,604).
In this example, each fantasy team before the draft starts with 30 pitching points in a 12-team 5 X 5 Roto format. The Verlander/Cole team would most likely score 48 fantasy points in wins, ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts if they hit on the rest of their stats to fill the other seven pitching roster spots. If this team finished mid-pack in saves, the new total in pitching points would move to 54 or a net gain of 24 league points by drafting the best two pitchers in 2019.
The combined SIscore for Verlander and Cole from 2019 came in at 31.32. At some point, this team's edge in pitching is nullified at the top end when a gap at the top of each category opens up. However, this edge can allow more flexibility to chase wins, strikeouts, or saves if needed within the league standings.
Finishing off your pitching edge
I've seen fantasy managers get the front of their pitching staff right in the past, but they get beat at the backend. So when trying to establish an edge in a draft, I need to have follow-through with my solid plan. I can't draft two aces over the first three rounds and then wait for 15 rounds for my next starter.
Today's drafters are more in tune with the pitcher pool. A fantasy team needs at least six solid starters and possibly two more serviceable arms on their bench. A fantasy manager may find a couple of upside arms on the waiver wire in some seasons, but it is not a guarantee.
In a way, maybe we need to change how we evaluate pitchers. For example, is a Justin Verlander or a Gerrit Cole worth 20 percent more than a pitcher with a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP?
(200 innings with 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP) = 55.5 runs allowed and 200 baserunners allowed.
(200 innings with a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP) = 66.6 runs allowed and 240 baserunners.
Any pitcher with an ERA over your goal (3.75 ERA in 2019 to reach the top percent) would have a negative return on your team. The same goes for the WHIP category.
Closing thoughts
Fantasy managers know pitching is volatile. They also understand who has the most talent. In the changing world in the high-stakes market, it is challenging to win consistently by cheating pitching. However, it can work in some years, and maybe it worked better in the early stages of fantasy baseball.
The top drafters want to grab a couple of elite aces to start their team. They adjust to the changing flow of the inventory. They understand the tradeoffs at each position. Verlander and Cole were worth 20 percent more than pitchers with 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 2019. It's like deciding between a 30 home-run first baseman in round one and a 25 home-run first baseman in round two. The decision isn't that clear-cut, as more categories are involved with hitters.
When I see the past results from the high-stakes market, I know where a Dual Aces team had an edge. I can also see where half of the teams in leagues struggled with front-end starters if multiple teams were able to double up with Dual Aces.
In 2021, there were many more failures at the front end of the pitching inventory. Their lack of success should create more buying opportunities this draft season. In addition, the limited spring training news may not drive too many pitchers inside the first rounds of drafts.
The Dual Aces strategy is a great way to get an edge in pitching if I lock down two arms that pitch at a high level plus stay healthy. The lead starting pitching inventory should have a dramatic run early in drafts this season, but multiple arms will move up after signing late or look healthier on the mound in March.
Owning Dual Aces is the ultimate goal, but I must remember price points and the tradeoffs in the draft flow. Each change in strategy creates a different opportunity. Just remember we are drafting for 2022. Dual Aces may be necessary to compete in a contest with an overall title, but a fantasy manager can still win stand-alone leagues with different game plans.
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