Atlanta Falcons 2022 Fantasy Outlook: London Calling
The Atlanta Falcons had a competitive run with Matt Ryan at quarterback for 14 seasons. After four losing years, while being a nine-iron away from the cellar in the NFL, the Falcons start their rebuild in 2022. Marcus Mariota gets his second chance to run an offense after holding a clipboard for the past three seasons. If he struggles, rookie Desmond Ridder will be the next man up behind center. TE Kyle Pitts has stud upside, while Atlanta brought in two new wideouts (Drake London and Bryan Edwards) to climb the offensive mountain. At the same time, the running back position is in flux, with multiple players expected to compete for snaps. Tyler Allgeier is their top runner added in this year’s draft class. The Falcons also have plenty of help to push up the defensive rankings.
Offense
Over the past decade, Atlanta consistently finished in the top-tier in the league in passing attempts. Their rushing attack hasn’t been relevant for multiple seasons. The Falcons’ coaching staff returns in 2022, pointing to a more balanced attack while also being influenced by game score in many matchups.
Marcus Mariota – click here for fantasy projections
Desmond Ridder
Ridder was a four-year starter in college who relied on his legs to make many plays (501/2,180/28). Last year he helped Cincinnati to an undefeated regular season (13-0) before bowing out to Alabama in the BCS Championship Series. He had growth in the passing game (3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions) while finishing with a step back in rushing production (110/355/6 – 3.2 yards per carry). Over his final three seasons, Ridder went 33-4, with three of his losses coming against Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama.
His movements in the pocket and the run game have similarities to Deshaun Watson, but Ridder doesn’t have the arm strength or accuracy in the deep passing game. He wants to throw first while having the speed and running ability to make chunk plays if Ridder sees an opening at the line of scrimmage. When in rhythm, he’ll make quick decisions over the short areas of the field. Cincinnati lined him up in the shotgun on most plays while using their back more as a safety outlet in the passing game rather than a play-action run threat. When asked to challenge a defense downfield, Ridder chose air over arm strength, which may be a problem in the NFL.
Fantasy outlook: Ridder can help the Falcons win, and his style of play falls in line with the addition of Mariota. His ability to run and throw the ball improves Atlanta’s scoring ability in the red zone. He projects as their backup early in 2022, but Ridder could jump to starting status quickly if Mariota falters or losses pile up early in the year.
Other Options: Feleipe Franks
Running Backs
The running backs in Atlanta gained fewer than 3.9 yards per rush in each of the past three seasons while producing a tight range of touchdowns (9, 12, 9). The change of coaching staff and a new role for Cordarrelle Patterson led to the Falcons using their backs more in the passing game (110/896/6 on 145 targets) in 2021.
Cordarrelle Patterson – click here for fantasy projections
Tyler Allgeier
Over his last two seasons at BYU, Allgeier gained 3,104 combined yards with 36 touchdowns and 42 catches on 468 touches. However, his explosiveness regressed in 2021 (5.8 yards per carry – 7.5 in 2020) after receiving a workhorse opportunity (276 rushes) in the run game. His value in the passing game improved over the last two years (14/174 and 28/199).
Allgeier brings size (5’11” and 225 pounds) to the table, but his game isn’t built around power. He runs with vision while lacking fluidness in his runs and acceleration to make defenses pay for their mistakes at the first level. However, when given daylight in space, Allgeier will take what is given to him. He can succeed with volume of touches, and his value in the passing game should improve with more experience.
Fantasy outlook: Based on the Falcons’ running back structure, Atlanta should give Allgeier a reasonable chance to run the ball on early downs. He has an upside of 200 rushes for 850 yards with short scores and some catches. On the flip side, the Falcons don’t have a top-tier back standing in his way. As a result, his ADP (183) in the NFFC in June puts him in the flier zone.
Damien Williams
Williams missed the entire 2020 season with concerns about COVID-19. Last year he struggled to get on the field over the first seven games for the Bears, resulting in only 203 combined yards with two touchdowns and 11 catches on 48 targets. Unfortunately for Harris, a calf issue cost him three games and a chance to fill in for David Montgomery. When the season ended, Williams slipped to RB3 status in the Bears’ offense with emptiness over his final five contests (64 yards with five catches on eight touches).
Fantasy outlook: He flashed over a couple of seasons for the Chiefs while never earning a full-time starting job. Williams is more of veteran insurance with some value in the passing game.
Other Options: Qadree Ollison, Caleb Huntley, Avery Williams
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver goldmine hit a cliff in 2021 once Calvin Ridley mysteriously left the team, citing mental health issues. Atlanta had almost a 50% drop in receiving yards (1,736) in 2021, with three-year lows in catches (159), yards per catch (10.9), and touchdowns (9). The days of the Falcons throwing the ball well over 600 times look to be over. Even if the mental health issues are resolved, Ridley is suspended for the 2022 season due to gambling.
Drake London
After a minimal role over his first two seasons at USC (39/567/5 and 33/502/3), first-round draft pick Drake London developed into a high-volume receiver in his junior year (88/1,084/7) over eight games. He had a floor of nine catches in seven matchups (12/137, 13/170/2, 10/165, 9/130/1, 16/162/1, 15/171, 9/81/2). Unfortunately, his season ended in late October due to a broken right ankle.
The connection between London and USC’s starting quarterbacks last year was impressive. He caught the ball behind the line of scrimmage, in the flat, crossing routes, back shoulder fades and over the top, showcasing a wide range of plays where his game created an edge. He has the look of a tight end playing wide receiver. London wins with size while also being more agile than expected with his feet. He can break some tackles and win many jump balls.
Fantasy outlook: USC showed the Falcons how to use London in multiple ways. Creating mismatches in coverage earns more chances, which should happen for him early in his rookie season. His next challenge is gaining an advantage vs. physical players. London has an ADP of 102 in the early draft season in the NFFC as the 41st wideout selected. Atlanta will give him every opportunity to succeed, leading to 65 catches for 800 yards and about five scores.
Bryan Edwards
In his rookie season with the Raiders, Edwards caught 11 of his 15 targets for 193 yards and one touchdown. Last year he pushed his catch total to 34 with 571 yards and three touchdowns on 59 targets. The Raiders didn’t give him more than six targets in any matchup.
Edwards brings a feel of a big, physical wide receiver in the NFL with the route running and release to win over the short areas of the field. In the deep passing game, he has the wheels to get on top of some cornerbacks. His hands should improve with more chances while already owning the ability to snatch tough passes in traffic. He’ll make some spectacular catches with one hand.
Over four seasons at South Carolina, Edwards caught 234 balls for 3,045 yards and 22 touchdowns. His best season in catches (71) came in 2019, yards in 2018 (846), and TDs (7) in 2018.
Edwards can bounce off defenders or beat them with his speed. He’ll win in space on many one-on-one matchups while also showing some value as an open-field runner.
Fantasy outlook: At this point of his career, Edwards needs to establish himself as a lead starting wideout. The Falcons may use him more in a deep threat role (17.0 yards per catch with Las Vegas) while also having a chance to be a third-year breakout player. His next step looks to be 50 catches for 750 yards with short scores.
Olamide Zaccheaus
The Falcons gave Zaccheaus WR3 snaps in four games in 2020, leading to two productive games (8/86 and 4/103/1). He finished the season with 20 catches for 274 yards and one score on 32 targets. A toe injury ended his season in early December.
Last season he set career-highs in catches (31), receiving yards (406), touchdowns (3) and targets (53) while having the second-most snaps (610) in Atlanta.
In his best year at Virginia, Zaccheaus caught 93 passes for 1,058 yards and nine touchdowns on 136 targets.
Fantasy outlook: His quickness puts him more in the mix for snaps on the outside. Zaccheaus will be found in the free-agent pool in all leagues.
Other Options: Frank Darby, Auden Tate, Damiere Byrd, KhaDarel Hodge
Tight Ends
The drop-off in wide receiver chances shifted to their tight ends last season, thanks to the addition of Kyle Pitts. They finished with 108 catches for 1,355 yards and five touchdowns on 158 targets. The Falcons’ top receiving option this year will be Pitts.
Kyle Pitts – click here for fantasy projections
Other Options: Anthony Firkser, Parker Hesse, John Fitzpatrick
Kicker
Younghoe Koo
Over his three seasons with the Falcons, Koo made 92.6% of his 94 field-goal tries with strength from 50 yards or more (13-for-14). He has four missed extra points in his 91 career chances. Last year, Atlanta created 62 scoring chances (33 touchdowns and 29 field goals).
Fantasy outlook: Koo has the type of leg fantasy teams should desire, but the Falcons have a bottom-tier offense. On the positive side, they may stall on many drives in the red zone, leading to more three-point chances. For now, Koo is only a week-to-week matchup option
Coaching
The Falcons named Arthur Smith as their new head coach in 2021. He ran Tennessee’s offense in 2019 and 2020 while working in their system since 2011. Smith went 7-10 in his first season while being outscored by 146 points.
Dave Ragone returns for a second season to run Atlanta’s offensive. He worked in the Titans’ system from 2011-13 as their wide receiver and quarterbacks coach with Smith. Ragone coached in the NFL for 10 seasons, with most of his experience coming as a quarterbacks coach.
Atlanta dropped to 29th in offensive yards after having a top-eight offense in yards from 2014-19. In addition, they slipped to 26th in points scored (313), 83 points fewer than 2020 (396).
The Falcons added Dean Pees to be their defensive coordinator in 2021. He has had a long successful career on the defensive side of the ball for the Patriots and Ravens from 2004-17, leading to two Super Bowl wins (2004 and 2012). Pees ran Tennessee’s defense in 2018-19 before announcing his retirement. He has 13 seasons of experience as a defensive coordinator.
Their defense finished 26th in yards allowed while giving up 459 points (29th). Atlanta ranks 20th or below eight times over the past 10 seasons in yards allowed.
Free Agency
Atlanta lost two top players (LB Foyesade Oluokun and WR Russell Gage) to free agency, plus LB Josh Harris, TE Hayden Hurst and DE Dante Fowler. The only two signings of value were QB Marcus Mariota and CB Casey Heyward.
Draft
With eight players selected in the 2022 NFL draft, the Falcons invested in five players for their offense (WR Drake London – 1.8, QB Desmond Ridder – 3.10, RB Tyler Allgeier – 5.8, G Justin Shaffer – 6.11 and TE John Fitzpatrick – 6.35). In addition, Atlanta added a pair of pass rushers (Arnold Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone) and LB Troy Anderson to their defense.
Offensive Line
The Falcons ended last year with the second-lowest total in rushing yards (1,451) with 11 touchdowns and 11 runs over 20 yards. Ball carriers gained 3.7 yards per rush for the second year in a row.
Atlanta dropped to 16th in passing yards (3,987) with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Their offensive line allowed 40 sacks. They gained 7.0 yards per pass attempt with 44 catches over 20 yards.
Their offensive line had two missed games by their top five starting options last season. The Falcons graded well in the run game up the middle, but LT Jake Matthews struggled in this area. Atlanta had pass-blocking concerns at three positions. With more experience and chemistry, this group should improve to be slightly better than the league average in all areas in 2022.
Defense
Atlanta fell to 27th in rushing yards allowed (2,242) with 19 touchdowns and seven runs over 20 yards. Their regression came from offenses attempting 30.5 rushes per game while gaining 4.3 yards per carry.
The Falcons improved to 18th in passing yards allowed (3,952) with 31 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions. Quarterbacks gained 7.1 yards per pass attempt with 51 completion over 20 yards. Their defense had a league-low 18 sacks.
The cornerback position should be in good hands with A.J. Terrell, Isaiah Oliver and Casey Hayward, but they have weaknesses at the safety position. Atlanta lacks talent on their defensive line to rush the quarterback or even shut down the run. Any success stopping offenses on the ground or pressuring the quarterback will come from their linebackers.
The Falcons desperately need more sacks to help close the passing window by quarterbacks. They will rank below the league average in all areas again in 2022 with minimal fantasy value.
2022 FANTASY OUTLOOKS
AFC East: Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
AFC North: Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
AFC South: Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
AFC West: Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
NFC East: Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
NFC North: Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
NFC South: Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
NFC West: Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks
