2020 NFL Coach of the Year Best Bets
The oddsmakers over at FanDuel Sportsbook have released their odds for 2020 NFL Coach of the Year and it’s no surprise who the two co-favorites are sitting atop the betting perch. The last back-to-back NFL Coach of the Year winner was Washington's Joe Gibbs back in 1982 and 1983. Since the award is perennially awarded to the coach whose team shows improvement from the previous season, it's hard to envision Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh (22/1) improving on a 14-2 campaign.
The co-favorites are Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots and new Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy, each at odds of 12/1.
There has always been banter about who exactly is the most responsible for the creation of the New England Patriots dynasty over the past two decades. Many fans, as well as current and HOF players, are always quick to reference “Spygate” and “Deflategate” as necessary asterisks to the club’s success. No matter the case, with Tom Brady now in Tampa Bay, the illustrious coach will always find it difficult to avoid the moniker of ‘Belicheat’ outside of Boston. He will now have an opportunity to show the world that it was his system, the “Patriot Way”, that was the real reason for the franchise’s success as opposed to the singular efforts of any individual player.
Did Brady play more of a role in bringing six Super Bowl titles to New England than Belichick? I would argue it was more a result of a combination of the two as opposed to the efforts of each individually. With inexperienced Jarrett Stidham slated to be under center in 2020, many are expecting the beginning of the end for Belichick and the Patriots.
Despite the pessimism, the oddsmakers have installed the legendary coach as betting co-favorite to win Coach of the Year because he is able to guide the Patriots to a 12th consecutive AFC East championship, it would easily be the best coaching job of his career and worthy of garnering the award.
Fresh off a tremendous draft, Mike McCarthy (12/1) is a top candidate as he prepares for his first season with the Dallas Cowboys. The club added arguably the top pass-catcher in this year’s draft in Oklahoma wide receiver CeeDee Lamb with the No. 17 overall draft pick. The Cowboys missed the playoffs last season, but will return the majority of a roster that outscored their opponents by 113 points in 2019, with an even more explosive offense led by Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Gallup and Lamb.
Arizona Cardinals head coach Kilff Kingsbury (18/1) has one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL in Kyler Murray and is in position for tremendous growth in 2020 after the addition of arguably the best wideout in the league in DeAndre Hopkins. It is not hard to project improvement for the Cardinals off a 5-10-1 campaign in 2019 with all the additions via trade, free agency and the draft.
Not surprisingly, Brady’s new head coach with the Buccaneers, Bruce Arians (14/1), is right behind Belichick and McCarthy as the third overall choice in the betting odds. I’m skeptical that Arians will take home the award as I am not convinced the Buccaneers will meet expectations due to the age of Brady and the injury history of Rob Gronkowski. I believe the deck is stacked against playing a full 16-game season in 2020, which detracts substantial value in Arians.
One other name to keep an eye on is the Tennessee Titans’ Mike Vrabel. He’s listed at 20/1 odds to win the award and just had a really solid draft after bringing back quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry.
Vegas Whispers:
Bettors need to take an historical approach when attempting to break down this betting market. Upon that research, we discover two vitally important findings:
Four of the last 10 Coach of the Year Awards have gone to first-year head coaches of their respective teams. In addition, eight of the last 10 Coach of the Year Awards have gone to coaches who win their division.
Since I project the Bills to win the AFC East and the Saints to take the NFC South, that eliminates both Belichick and Arians from consideration. The Cardinals will make significant strides but there is no way they overtake San Francisco in the NFC West, forcing me to toss Kingsbury. Although I love the potential of the Cleveland Browns to rebound from a disastrous 2019 six-win season, I do not see them overtaking the Ravens in the AFC North which eliminates Kevin Stefanski (20/1) from fitting the overwhelming criteria mentioned above.
The Cowboys, who absolutely crushed the draft, just missed winning the NFC East crown last season by only one game to the Philadelphia Eagles. I believe winning the division is a realistic goal in 2020 and so do the oddsmakers who have installed the Cowboys as the favorites at odds of +105. Therefore, McCarthy checks both boxes being in his first year in Texas.
The Play: Mike McCarthy (12/1)
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