Astros Predicted To Make $34 Million Bet on Proven Starter With Major Red Flag

Sports Illustrated's Nick Selbe predicts that the Astros will sign Shota Imanaga, a 33-year-old free-agent left-handed pitcher who spent the previous three seasons with the Chicago Cubs.

Astros Needs

The Astros need starting rotation help this offseason and Imanaga was projected to sign a two-year 34-million-dollar deal with the team. In a rotation that includes Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert, Imanaga could fit in nicely behind or in between the two. It might also be nice to have another Japanese pitcher in the rotation to go along with Tatsuya Imai, who admitted having trouble with the transition to stateside ball. His home run numbers were severely elevated in 2026, causing concern for MLB clubs.

Foreign Ball Time

Imanaga was a first-round draft pick in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) draft, Japan’s professional baseball league. He made his debut in that league at the age of 22 with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. Imanaga was an all-star in the league in 2019 and 2023. In 2022, he threw a no-hitter with a nine-strikeout performance.

After the 2023 season, in which he posted a 2.66 ERA with 188 strikeouts in 159.0 innings, the BayStars announced that they would be posting Imanaga to Major League Baseball. He signed a four-year deal with club options with the Cubs in the 2023-24 offseason.

2024 With The Cubs

Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) throws the ball against the Washington Nationals. — Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

In his first season, he registered a 2.91 ERA with 174 strikeouts and finished fifth in the Cy Young voting. He also finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting with a 3.0 bWAR. Imanaga pitched a combined no-hitter in September of his first season with the Cubs, the first no-hitter at Wrigley Field by the Cubs in 50 years.

2025 Second Year In The Majors

In his second year, he took a step back with a 3.73 ERA and just 117 strikeouts in 144.2 innings. His FIP came out to 4.86 in 2025, and he struggled in his lone postseason start.

In the 2025-26 offseason, the Cubs rejected a 3-year, $58 million extension option and Imanaga declined a $15 million, one-year player option. The two teams decided on a $22 million qualifying offer, which kept Imanaga in Chicago for one more season.

Final Cub Year

Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) returns to the dugout. — Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Last year, Imanaga posted a 3.77 ERA with an 11-10 record. He fanned 174 in 174.1 innings. His home run numbers were elevated; he didn't get a chance to make a playoff appearance for the Cubs as they were bounced in two games.

Altogether, his time with the Cubs saw the South Paw throw 492.1 innings and strike out 465. He posted 6.5 bWAR and won 35 games to just 21 losses.

Imanaga could be a reliable number two or number three starter for the Astros. Either way, the move would be a welcome one for an Astros team on a slippery slope to irrelevancy. He’s proven he can lead teams to victory with his tip-top win percentage. Imanaga would be a substantial improvement and tagged alongside the Astros' bats, could prove a boon in the win column.

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