Astros ‘Nightmare’ Start Will Make Them Trade Deadline Sellers

The Houston Astros would be trimming considerable payroll at the trade deadline if this season keeps going this way.

Houston Astros manager Joe Espada (left) and general manager Dana Brown (right) talk on the field. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros haven’t given up the ship just yet.

The Astros have won six of their last 10 games and are 22-31 after beating the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. They remain within striking distance of the top of the American League West Division and the final AL wild card berth. There are four players heading to Double-A Corpus Christi for a rehab game. Reinforcements appear to be coming.

That’s the optimistic view. That may not line up with the reality of a franchise with a bloated payroll, more than a dozen players on the injured list and one that, up until the past 10 games, struggled with consistency everywhere.

By mid-July, Houston should have a read on its immediate future. By that point, at least one insider believes the Astros will be trade deadline sellers.

Why the Astros Should Sell at Trade Deadline

Houston Astros first baseman Christian Walker,. | David Banks-Imagn Images

Jim Bowden, a former MLB general manager who writes for The Athletic (subscription required) rated every team as buyers or sellers for the deadline based on where they are heading into the Memorial Day weekend, one of the key benchmarks of the baseball season. He called their season a “nightmare” and while he acknowledged the Astros have a habit of overcoming slow starts, this one would be too steep a climb.

In that case, he wrote, the Astros would be sellers. And it could be a true selloff.

The Astros have an adjusted payroll total of $240.7 million, which is just under the first apron of the competitive balance tax. Houston owner Jim Crane is unlikely to let general manager Dana Brown make moves to add payroll unless the Astros are in contention. In that case, Brown — who like manager Joe Espada is under fire and could lose his job after the season — will have to trade current players.

In that case, Houston has several players it could shop. First baseman Christian Walker — who the Astros tried to trade this offseason — has bounced back offensively and could interest a contender, though they would have to deal with the remaining $20 million on his contract in 2027.

Another player Houston tried to deal last offseason, Isaac Paredes, would become highly coveted. He signed a two-year deal with Houston in the offseason that pays him $9.35 million in 2026 and comes with a $13.35 million club option in 2027.

Aside from Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Hunter Brown, it’s likely Houston would shop anyone else on the roster if helps their future. If Houston lands in the seller bucket, it could be a busy deadline.