May They Never Lose Again: Mapping Out How the Athletics Can Make the Playoffs
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It may be a long shot, but the Athletics still have a mathematical path to the playoffs.
After winning their last four games, there is minimal hope that the Athletics will be able to make the postseason. The content below likely will not come to fruition, but technically there is a chance. The Athletics need a lot of things to go their way, which is a theme that has clearly not been present this season. The A's also need to do a lot of winning, another theme that has not been present lately.
What the Athletics Need to Do
Win. That is all the Athletics really have to do on their side of things. This would mean that the Athletics would need to put together 23 straight wins, including their current four-game winning streak, in order to have a small chance of making the playoffs. This would mean that the Athletics would have to sweep the Blue Jays, Mariners (again), Rays, Guardians, Angels, and Astros to finish with a 76-86 record.
However, when you factor in the Athletics' blazing-hot offense and improvements in the bullpen, there is no doubt that the Athletics will be able to finish the season on a high note. But asking for 19 straight wins following their recent four-game winning streak would be completely insane and would break baseball history. Especially when you factor in the sheer firepower that is on the injured list. Any losses would basically make it exponentially harder to sneak into the Wildcard Series.
Starts and Ends With Toronto
The only target that truly matters is the Blue Jays. Not only are they tied for the final A.L Wild Card spot along with Cleveland, but if they continue to win, this essentially means the Athletics are dead to rights. Following the final game of the Mariners series, the Athletics will have a three-game set against the Jays, a series that will literally make-or-break the season.
Per the first section, the Athletics simply cannot lose a single game. With the Blue Jays series up next, the Athletics will have to win the series finale vs. the Mariners and then go on to sweep the Jays, a feat that already feels impossible on paper. But if the Athletics can do this, it could be the start of a generational skid by Toronto, where they would have to at least finish the season 3-16, making their final record 75-87.
Cleveland Needs to Crumble
As mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays are not the only team that could spoil things for the Athletics. With both the Jays and Guardians currently sitting at 72-71, they would need to finish the season 3-16 (75-87), with three of the losses coming against the Athletics, who will play the Guardians on Sept. 18-20.
Texas Needs to Implode
With the Rangers also hunting for the final Wild Card spot, they will need to lose as well. This team, by far, could be the biggest thorn in the Athletics' miracle run, as they are not only near the Guardians and Blue Jays at 70-73, but they also do not play the Athletics to end the season. Meaning there is no opportunity for a season-altering series loss to the Athletics.
For the Athletics to surpass them, they would need to finish the season by losing at least 14 of their final 19 games. So if there is a chance for the Athletics to make the playoffs, you should be rooting against Texas during this final stretch, if you have not done so already.
Other Teams
With all the real heavy hitters out of the way, there are still the Orioles, Twins, and Mariners ahead of the Athletics. For the Athletics to surpass them, the Orioles would have to finish 6-13, the Twins 7-13, and the Mariners 9-10. Unlikely, but a lot more plausible than the Rangers', Blue Jays', and Guardians' final-stretch W-L records.
Most Critical Series to Watch
With so many teams ahead of the Athletics, there will be overlap among the teams currently ahead. And because of this, how these series play out will directly influence the Athletics' chances of making the playoffs.
The most important series that don't explicitly involve the Athletics will be the final two series between the Orioles and the Blue Jays. The ideal result in both series would be 2-1 and 3-0. These six games could account for five of the Jays' required 16 losses. Add an Athletics sweep, and the Blue Jays will have half of the 16 losses.
Considering how close the Blue Jays already are to ending the Athletics' season, we should account for the Guardians as well. They will need to lose 2-1 in their series against both the Orioles and the Twins. Because the Orioles and Twins can win more games, they get the series wins.
Another series that needs to finish in the Athletics' favor is the Toronto vs. Texas series. It is a series between two teams that really cannot win a lot of games, which does not help the Athletics. But in the series, the Rangers will need to win cleanly 2-1, as the Athletics can afford a Rangers series win much more than a Blue Jays series win.
Hypothetical Final Wildcard Standings
Team | Sept. 5 Record | Games Left | Rest of Season Record | Final Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Athletics | 57-86 | 19 | 19-0 | 76-86 |
Toronto | 72-71 | 19 | 3-16 | 75-87 |
Cleveland | 72-71 | 19 | 3-16 | 75-87 |
Texas | 70-73 | 19 | 5-14 | 75-87 |
Baltimore | 69-74 | 19 | 6-13 | 75-87 |
Minnesota | 69-74 | 20 | 7-13 | 75-87 |
Seattle | 66-77 | 19 | 9-10 | 75-87 |
Is This Possible?
Yes. This is possible, but realistic? Absolutely not. A literal miracle would need to happen for each of the last 134 games of the Wildcard contenders to go the Athletics' way. If this did happen, however, the Athletics would likely have a second movie made about them.
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Andrew Ferguson is the beat writer at Athletics On SI. He is currently pursuing his sports journalism degree from UNLV, striving to turn his lifelong passion for sports into his career.
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