Blue Jays Could Make Bold Bet on Proven Veteran Sonny Gray
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When the Red Sox were going through a puzzling start and needed some breathing room, Sonny Gray’s consistency never collapsed and he became the rotation’s ace after the injury that kept Garrett Crochet off the mound for practically the entire season.
That durability has not been a characteristic that has accompanied Gray for most of his 14 seasons, but without a doubt, he has been a consistent pitcher, capable of providing depth to any starting staff in the first three spots of the rotation.
Gray has pitched at least 117 innings in 12 of his 14 campaigns in the Majors, and the only times he did not achieve that were in his debut in 2013 with the Athletics and in the pandemic-shortened season in 2020.
In these last four seasons, the span between his ages of 33 and 36, which includes his work with three different teams -- with the Minnesota Twins in 2023, the St. Louis Cardinals in 2024 and 2025, and the Red Sox in 2026 -- Gray has recorded at least 166 innings pitched. But that ability to stay healthy and consistently handle high workloads is not the only interesting point here, as he has also been an elite pitcher, recording the sixth-highest fWAR (10.8) among only eight right-handed starting pitchers who have accumulated at least 10.0 fWAR since 2023.
For teams like the Blue Jays, which need arms capable of holding the rotation together and offering stability, Gray should be in the conversation despite the fact that he will turn 37 during next season.
Assessing Risk and Reward for Gray
Look, there is something clear here: The Jays need at least a couple of pitchers who can strengthen the rotation, and it is evident that one of them should be an elite pitcher.
That is what I believe would help dispel some doubts about a rotation that has suffered constant injuries in recent seasons. For 2027, Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano are the arms that offer the highest projections, but the rest of the rotation is full of uncertainty.
Trey Yesavage should be the third most reliable name when he is healthy, but that was not entirely possible this year. It is still unknown whether Max Scherzer will return, while left-hander Patrick Corbin (15) and Shane Bieber (11), who combined for 26 starts, are now free agents.
The best way for the Jays to resolve this is by getting an elite starter to accompany Cease, who has been one of the best starting pitchers in the entire league and had a 2026 season worthy of a Cy Young, although Cam Schlittler stands out slightly as the favorite to win the award.
So, if that is what this is about, I am thinking of big names like Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Trevor Rogers or Gray himself, and a less expensive mid-rotation acquisition.
That said, acquiring Gray, like any trade, has advantageous aspects and some risks. The main advantage is that he has enough experience, knows the division and is coming off a very good season at age 36, after finishing with a 2.72 ERA and leading the league with 18 wins, in addition to ranking second in quality starts with 20 in 29 starts, a career high.
Gray recorded a 3.68 xFIP, an increase that could be concerning compared to his last two seasons, when he recorded 2.82 and 3.07 with St. Louis, respectively.
What has been the biggest concern here? The decline in his strikeout rate, from 10.01 in 2025 to 7.93 this year, the lowest of his career since his last full season with the Athletics in 2016, which could be considered the worst campaign he has had in MLB, when he finished with a 5-11 record, a 5.69 ERA and a K/9 rate of just 7.23.
Even so, it is clear that Gray was able to manage the decline in strikeouts, as he improved from the 49th percentile in Pitching in 2025 to the 87th this year, even though he dropped from the 60th to the 33rd percentile in Whiff% and from the 79th to the 43rd in K%.
But at this point, we cannot forget the influence of the Red Sox’s elite defense, which had one of the best trios of outfielders in all of baseball in 2026. We can appreciate the difference in the decline in his BABIP allowed, from .329 in 2025 to .283.
In Toronto, Gray could have an elite defense, although we should not rule out the possibility that he could recover part of his strikeout rate. Wherever he lands, it should be a team whose defense can help him keep the increase in contact he has allowed under control.
In fact, Steamer projects a 3.63 xFIP for 2027, with an improvement in his strikeout rate and a walk rate similar to that of 2026. Assuming that his age is the most complicated factor in his projections, perhaps the Jays will offer Gray $25 million for one season, with an option for 2028 that depends on him maintaining the performance the team expects from him.
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Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.
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