Comparing Guerrero Jr.'s 2026 Season With Other Star's Down Years
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It's impossible to tell the story of the Toronto Blue Jays' 2026 season without talking about the struggles of star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. From his single-digit home run total to his underwhelming slash line (.260 /.332/.356), his forgettable campaign was disastrous even if you don't account for the fact that he was in the first year of a 14-year, $500 million contract.
It's overly simplistic to suggest that Guerrero Jr. was the reason that the Blue Jays missed the playoffs. However, even a version of the 27-year-old who hovered around his career-average offensive production (285/.361/.478) might have been enough to provide the 79-win team with more solid footing in the postseason race.
In Toronto, the staggering drop in performance from a star in his prime brought to mind the decline of Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Auston Matthews, who regressed from 69 goals to 33 to 27 over the past three seasons. But the trials and tribulations of Guerrero Jr. also aren't unique to baseball, even if they are rather rare.
Let's examine a few MLB stars who also endured tumultuous seasons in the past:
Cal Raleigh, 2026
While Guerrero Jr. was scuffling in Toronto, Cal Raleigh was struggling to live up to a sensational 2025 campaign that resulted in a second-place finish in AL MVP voting. After leading the league in home runs (60) and RBI (125) while sporting a .948 OPS, Raleigh took a big step back with just 23 homers, 69 RBI and a .664 OPS, hitting well below the Mendoza Line (.182) all year.
If you look at Raleigh's six-year MLB career, the 2025 campaign stands out as more of an anomaly than this year's showing. While he suffered through his lowest homer total since his rookie year, his .218 career batting average doesn't project a major anticipated uptick for the 29-year-old in 2027. Ultimately, this wasn't really the same precipitous fall from grace that Guerrero Jr. experienced.
Chris Davis, 2014
Back in 2013, Chris Davis' age-27 season went a whole lot differently than Guerrero Jr.'s did. Davis, as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, blasted an AL-best 53 home runs and added a league-leading 138 RBI while sporting a 1.004 OPS in a season that saw him finish third in MVP voting.
That level didn't last. Davis followed up his monster 2013 campaign by basically cutting his home run and RBI totals in half (26 and 72, respectively) and dropping his OPS by exactly 300 points. Although he would ultimately come to be known for his disastrous seven-year, $161 million contract (one that continues to be paid by Baltimore via deferrals), he bounced back with 85 home runs over the following two seasons (along with a ton of strikeouts), offering some hope for Guerrero Jr.
Cody Bellinger, Post-Pandemic
Today, Cody Bellinger is a key contributor on a strong New York Yankees team that is rolling into the American League Division Series after demolishing the Boston Red Sox. That's not a bad place for the 31-year-old to be, but the early stages of his career appeared to chart a more lofty, ambitious path.
In his third year in the league and soon after winning the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year award, Bellinger earned MVP honors at just 23 by recording 47 home runs and 115 RBI while slashing .305/.406/.629. Then, the pandemic hit. It isn't fair to compare Bellinger's numbers in the shortened 2020 season to his 2019 MVP campaign, but the reality is that he has regressed from what was a Hall of Fame-level path to putting up what are pretty good numbers.
It remains to be seen how Raleigh (and, in the same vein, Kyle Tucker) rebounds from his down year moving forward. Generally speaking, though, it does seem like good players don't let a bad year completely derail their careers, which is very good news for the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. Still, he has an awful long way to go to return to his 2021 peak form - or his 2025 postseason form, for that matter.
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Ben Fisher is a long-time sportswriter and baseball lover, dating back to 2008, when he was a member of the media relations team for the Toronto Blue Jays. He has covered a wide range of sports for a seemingly endless array of publications, including The Canadian Press, Fansided and The Hockey Writers. When he isn't writing about sports, he can be found coaching his equally baseball-obsessed sons' Little League teams.