Nick Martinez Gives Blue Jays a Compelling Alternative to Top Free Agents
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There are levels, of course. After Tarik Skubal, Michael King, Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers have been the three highest-ranked starters in this free-agent class, and Peralta and King, above all, will be the most expensive arms. There is a lot of anticipation surrounding Peralta after his great improvement following his move from the New York Mets to the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline, when he completely turned his season around.
Even so, I would not rule out the possibility of the Rays trying to retain him, although it has not been the type of move they have made throughout their history. But, as I recently wrote here, if the Blue Jays cannot get Peralta, King would be one of the best remaining options, given the team’s need to add arms that can provide stability and depth to the starting rotation.
Should the Jays Explore an Additional Option Even if They Get an Elite Arm?
I still believe Toronto should consider it, and the reasons are right in front of us. This season, the Jays used nine starters who made at least eight starts, but only three of them recorded 20 or more. They were the rotation leaders, Dylan Cease (29), Kevin Gausman (23) and Trey Yesavage (20).
However, only Cease, with 169 innings, and Gausman, with 127 ⅓ before being sent to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline, were the starters who surpassed 100 innings all year.
When the Jays brought in right-hander Jose Soriano, his ability to handle large workloads with a strong arm that has demonstrated durability was one of the main attractions.
That said, it is reasonable to think that a major investment in a high-level pitcher would limit other team priorities this winter, if they can get the signing of an impact free agent before the imminent Dec. 1 lockout.
Therefore, I would not rule out the idea that the Jays are exploring other options, and I also would not be surprised if they changed the plan and tried to find two quality starters who are not among the most expensive arms.
Following that approach, Nick Martinez is one of my favorite pitchers and, despite pitching part of 2027 at age 37, he continues to show that he can be effective, knows the American League East opponents perfectly well and has been one of the most consistent starters in terms of durability year after year.
Martinez is coming off a 15-6 record and a 3.10 ERA, one of the best in the league. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 163 innings pitched, with a 122 ERA+, a 3.87 FIP and 10.1 bWAR over that span, split between two different teams, the Cincinnati Reds and the Rays.
Nick is projected to receive an average annual value (AAV) of between $15 million and $17 million, and finished in the 91st percentile in Pitching this season. Three of the main weapons in his arsenal, the cutter (99), sinker (86) and changeup (92), ranked among the best pitches in the entire league. Since he does not depend on his high velocity, his great work is in command, and his dominance backs that up. In fact, he led the league with the highest combined Run Value on cutter, sinker and changeup among the 17 pitchers who finished with at least 400 batters faced in 2026.
Then there is the other key part of Martinez, his ability to avoid hard contact — he finished in the 88th percentile in Hard Hit% —, the consistency to make hitters chase his pitches and his impressive control, standing out as the pitcher with the lowest walk rate in the entire league, just 3.6%. On a team with the elite defense the Jays have, Martinez would fit very well in the middle of the rotation alongside Soriano and Yesavage, reserving the first two spots for Cease and perhaps one of the big free agents who remain an expectation.
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Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.
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