Re-Ranking the Last 10 First-Round Picks by the Blue Jays
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The 2026 MLB Draft will be the 11th draft overseen by the front office brain trust of President Mark Shapiro and General Manager Ross Atkins. That means that the duo now have ten drafts under their belt, dating back to their respective hirings after the 2015 season.
Ten years offer a solid body of work to evaluate. And as you might expect, Shapiro and Atkins have experienced a rather mixed bag of results along the way. They have unearthed some late-round gems, including the likes of Addison Barger and Davis Schneider, but have also suffered some early whiffs (Brandon Barriera, anyone?).
Given that the MLB Draft runs a whopping 20 rounds, there's no way to fairly evaluate full draft classes, nor is it reasonable to expect that every pick will be a home run. With that in mind, we've decided to look back and re-rank each of the Blue Jays' first-round selections* over that time frame.
* Note: for the purpose of this exercise, we are not including compensation round selections made between the first and second rounds.
10. Logan Warmoth
While Nate Pearson would be taken six places later in the compensatory round, Toronto's 2017 first-round pick (22nd overall) was used on forgettable college shortstop Logan Warmoth. Thought to wield a big league-ready bat coming out of UNC, he struggled offensively at every level of the club's minor league system before being claimed by the Seattle Mariners in the Rule 5 minor league draft.
9. Brandon Barriera
Injuries have wreaked havoc throughout every level of the Blue Jays' system - a fact that you don't need to remind Brandon Barriera of. The left-handed pitcher has been unable to stay on the mound since being taken in the first round of the 2022 draft (23rd overall). The 22-year-old has yet to progress beyond A-ball on account of having never made more than seven starts in a season. Currently, he has been sidelined since May 13 after hurting himself while throwing a pitch.
8. Jordan Groshans
The promise that Shapiro and Atkins saw when they drafted high school shortstop Jordan Groshans in the front half (12th overall) of the 2018 first round remained evident through his journey through the minor leagues. But even after mashing at Single-A and Double-A, Groshans seems to have reached his ceiling. He struggled at Triple-A Buffalo before being traded to the Miami Marlins, who offered him a cup of coffee in the majors in 2022 but haven't extended another call-up invite since.
7. T.J. Zeuch
The first draft pick of the Shapiro/Atkins regime didn't exactly get their tenure off to a particularly auspicious start. At 6'7" and coming off a solid season at the University of Pittsburgh, it's easy to see why they selected T.J. Zeuch with the 21st pick of the 2016 draft. Unfortunately, he failed to cement a place over three separate stints in Toronto and was last seen struggling to revitalize his career in Mexico.
6. Gunnar Hoglund
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but injuries have played a big role in derailing the promising career of Gunnar Hoglund. The 2021 19th overall pick reached the majors as a member of the Athletics last season (Toronto had traded him as part of the Matt Chapman deal). However, the right-hander has already undergone Tommy John surgery and has now seen his 2026 campaign washed out thanks to hip surgery.
5. JoJo Parker
It goes without saying that it is far too early to evaluate the Blue Jays' selection of infielder JoJo Parker with the eighth overall selection in the 2025 draft. The early signs, however, are encouraging. Playing A-ball in his first pro season, the 19-year-old is showcasing some power (nine home runs in 68 games) and general flashes of his offensive potential (.845 OPS) while coming off a sensational June.
4. Arjun Nimmala
In fact, only one other Toronto farmhand can currently rival Parker as the organization's top prospect. That would be shortstop and 2023 first-rounder (20th overall) Arjun Nimmala. Already in 2026, the 20-year-old has elevated his way through four levels of the team's system before landing at Double-A New Hampshire, where he is already looking comfortable.
3. Austin Martin
Success is still success, even if it comes with a different organization. Austin Martin, the fifth overall pick of the 2020 draft, spent just one year in the organization before being traded to the Minnesota Twins as part of the José Berríos trade. He has since become a versatile everyday player for the Twins, primarily manning the outfield but slotting in at second base when needed.
2. Trey Yesavage
When all is said and done, Trey Yesavage may well be among the most successful first-round picks in Blue Jays' history. His 2025 debut certainly made a rather unprecedented mark, as the 22-year-old was named Game 1 starter in the World Series after just three career regular season appearances at the major league level. Yesavage has rediscovered his form after a late start to 2026 and has done nothing to dissuade from the belief that he could be a frontline force in Toronto for years to come.
1. Alek Manoah
The inclusion of Alek Manoah at No. 1 might ruffle the feathers of Blue Jays fans who witnessed the big right-hander's monumental fall from grace. He deserves the top spot, however, on the merits of his 2022 season alone. Sporting a 16-7 record and a 2.24 ERA, the 2019 11th overall pick finished third in AL Cy Young voting and was named to the All-Star team. He even got the nod in Game 1 of the team's wild card series against the Seattle Mariners.
Even in light of his downfall almost immediately thereafter, Manoah's 2022 campaign reached heights that few in Toronto history have achieved.
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Ben Fisher is a long-time sportswriter and baseball lover, dating back to 2008, when he was a member of the media relations team for the Toronto Blue Jays. He has covered a wide range of sports for a seemingly endless array of publications, including The Canadian Press, Fansided and The Hockey Writers. When he isn't writing about sports, he can be found coaching his equally baseball-obsessed sons' Little League teams.