The Case for the Blue Jays Buying at the MLB Trade Deadline
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The games go by slowly, but the standings can change quickly.
On Monday, June 22nd, the Blue Jays beat Houston 4-2 to claw their way back to .500 despite a rash of injuries and underperformance from their stars.
That same day, the Boston Red Sox blew a 9th-inning lead to the lowly Colorado Rockies to drop to 14 games under .500.
Toronto's end-of-June swoon has continued into early July. Boston has been the hottest team in baseball.
Just 19 days and 16 games later, the Red Sox and Blue Jays are essentially tied in the standings and Fangraphs gives Boston better odds to make the playoffs. Toronto is a ghastly 16-30 against teams with a .500 or better record.
Your honor, I present Exhibit A as evidence that the Blue Jays need to consider selling at the deadline.
Objection!
And just why are you objecting to that, counselor? Didn't they start the process by trading Tommy Nance yesterday?
Because, your honor, as the chart title says, fortunes can flip fast. Three weeks ago, Toronto had roughly 7x Boston's odds of making the playoffs, and now Boston has the better odds.
It could quickly see-saw the other way.
The Blue Jays Should Buy Now
The American League has only one of the seven top teams in MLB by winning percentage. That team is Tampa Bay, which has nearly the same run differential as the Marlins, who would be the third wild card in the NL.
To make the playoffs and win once there, Toronto primarily needs three things: better health, a much better second half from Vladdy, and to be very aggressive buyers at the trade deadline.
Better Health
The Blue Jays were decimated by injuries for much of the first half of the season. Now, Toronto is in better shape on the injury front than several of the teams they are competing with for the Wild Card spots. New York (Judge), Seattle (Rodriguez), Minnesota (Buxton), Cleveland (Ramirez), and Boston (Crochet) are all arguably without their team's best player.
A Much Better Second Half from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
In the first half, his bat has taken more days off than Ferris Bueller. He has to be better in the second half. Right? Right? Anyone? Anyone?
Though he was voted an All-Star starter, he is wisely taking a few days off over the All-Star Break to rest his balky back, which might be a contributor to his lack of power in the first half. A few days off to recover physically and recalibrate mentally could make a big difference.
To Be Aggressive Buyers at the Trade Deadline
Below are some possible targets from teams with playoff odds under 20%. This criterion rules out some big swings like Tarik Skubal since the Tigers are just one game back of Toronto in the Wild Card race.
Two Power Bats: Juan Soto, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Ketel Marte, Jo Adell, Gavin Sheets, Goodman, Mike Trout, Eugenio Suarez, J.J. Bleday
Impact Starters: Logan Webb, Michael King, Eduardo Rodriguez, Freddy Peralta, Michael Wacha, Robbie Ray, Reid Detmers
High Leverage Relievers: Mason Miller, Devin Williams, Emilio Pagan, Adrian Moréjón, Keaton Winn
Fasten your seatbelts for all the rumors in the weeks to come.
You have made your point, counselor. The objection is sustained!
The Blue Jays spent money this offseason like a team with World Series-winning ambitions, having come just inches away from winning it all. They have several key players who will be free agents this offseason (Gausman, Springer, Varsho).
Their corporate owner, Rogers Communications, has the resources to take on some less-than-ideal contracts to facilitate trades.
Now is the time to go for it! They don't need to wait for the deadline to do it.
Remember, flags fly forever!
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Adam Steinmetz writes about the Toronto Blue Jays for On SI. Adam is also the editor and publisher of the Boston Sunday Sports Section, a weekly digital publication covering the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins. A two-time winner of the Best Collegiate Sports Writer award in Philadelphia, he began his career with freelance work for The Philadelphia Daily News and The Palm Beach Post before building a successful career outside of journalism. He returned to sports writing last year, contributing to Pitcher List—including coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays—before launching Authorenticity on Substack, where he explores the human stories within baseball. The Boston Sunday Sports Section is his most ambitious project — the thinking fan’s modern Sunday Sports Section focused on the Patriots, Red Sox, Celtics, and Bruins.