Fangraphs' Alex Bregman Projection Would be a Tough Pill for Cubs Fans to Swallow

The Chicago Cubs' signing of third baseman Alex Bregman has brought hope to a franchise that hasn't done much in the playoffs since their World Series win in 2016.

With Bregman's playoff experience and, above all, great play, the Cubs are in a great position to make a run in 2026.

However, projections are pessimistic on Bregman's outlook this year. Fangraphs, a well-respected projection using ZiPS and Steamer, has Bregman potentially having the worst year of his career with 23 home runs, 82 RBI, 87 runs, a .340 OBP, and a .761 OPS.

What will Alex Bregman bring to the Friendly Confines this year? 🐻 pic.twitter.com/Bt3nsHHGpU
— MLB (@MLB) February 16, 2026

What does this mean in context?

This would be a disastrous year for Bregman, especially in the first year of a five-year, $175 million contract.

Hitting 23 home runs would be a mediocre total for a player making $35 million per year. When you factor in that those 23 home runs would be in a projected 672 plate appearances (156 games), which would make for a career-low .421 slugging percentage, it would make it even worse.

Bregman has had a slugging percentage of .450+ in eight of his first 10 seasons. For someone who also averages 28 home runs per 162 games, this would be a below-average season for Bregman.

Chicago Cubs Alex Bregman | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

In addition, 82 runs driven in would be a low value for how many games he would be playing. In his career, Bregman averages 96 RBI's per 162 games.

A .340 on-base percentage would also be well below Bregman's career average of .365.

The biggest indicator that this projects a terrible season for Bregman's standards is his .761 projected OPS, which would be a career low and well below his career .846 OPS.

All in all, most of his projected numbers would be well below average for his career.

While he has played in very hitter-friendly parks for righties in Fenway and Minute Maid Park, Wrigley is more of a weather-dependent ballpark. When the wind is blowing, the ball will fly, making it not as big a change for Bregman.

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Chicago Cubs Alex Bregman (3) and Michael Busch (29) | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

If he only puts up these numbers in his first season, it would not only be very disappointing for their highest-paid player but also disastrous for the Cubs' season. Chicago's season will be incredibly dependent on how Bregman performs. While the Cubs' offense was already good before the Bregman signing, he adds another dimension to this team.

His failure would be tough for the fans and the franchise to accept, especially given that he's only going into his age-32 season. None of his stats from the past few seasons would indicate a precipitous decline for the three-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion.

Bregman is still in his prime and should produce at a high level if he stays healthy, making this Fangraphs projection a bit strange.

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