D-backs at Padres Series Preview: Time is Running Out to Make a Move

It's critical that the Diamondbacks find a way to turn around their season starting this week at Petco Park

Mar 28, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; A general view of at Petco Park during the playing of the national anthem before the game between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images | Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in San Diego this week to play four games against the Padres at Petco Park.

The D-backs are in desperate need of a series victory to close the gap with San Diego in order to stave off their general manager from being forced into sell mode as the trade deadline approaches. It wasn't supposed to be this way.

Entering the season, FanGraphs gave the Diamondbacks a projected win total of 86 and over a 60% chance to make the playoffs. The Padres we projected to win 81 games and had a 33% chance.

One week away from the All-Star break the D-backs are 44-46, and 4.5 games behind the Padres who are 48-41. San Diego sits in the third Wild Card spot at the moment, and there are three teams in between the D-backs and the Padres, namely the Giants, Cardinals, and Reds.

The Padres have rode the third-best bullpen in MLB to prop up a slightly below-average offense and starting pitching core. That core is about to gain an important reinforcement with the return of Yu Darvish however.

The D-backs have stayed afloat with the third-best offense in MLB, ed by All-Stars Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, and Corbin Carroll. They've had to compensate for the third-worst pitching staff in the league according to FanGraphs rankings.

Part of that is due to injury, with Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk. But it's also due to enormously disappointing seasons from Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Diamondbacks and Padres Starting Pitching Matchups

Zac Gallen and Yu Darvish 2025 Stats | Jack Sommers

Gallen is coming off one of his best starts of the season last week against the Giants, going seven innings and allowing one run on five hits while striking out 10.

Most importantly, he did not walk a batter. While his 2025 numbers will take many more such starts to make the season look respectable, he appears to have turned a corner.

Darvish has been sidelined all year with an elbow injury. After a long and winding rehabilitation process, he is finally able to make his season debut. The 38-year-old is in the third year of a six-year, $108 million contract that runs through 2028.

Merrill Kelly and Nick Pivetta 2025 Stats | Jack Sommers

Merrill Kelly is having a good season, but Nick Pivetta is having even a better one. Pivetta is trending somewhat better of late as well, allowing only one run in his last 13 innings. Kelly on the other hand has a 4.91 ERA over his last four starts, 22 innings.

Brandon Pfaadt and Dylan Cease 2025 stats | Jack Sommers

Brandon Pfaadt started the season with a 5-1 record and 2.78 ERA through his first six starts. In 12 starts since he's 3-5 with a 7.11 ERA. He went six innings, allowing four runs to the Giants in his most recent outing, taking the loss.

Dylan Cease has ironically been one of the weakest links on the Padres pitching staff in 2025. Acquired from the White Sox just before the 2024 season started in March, he has been a disappointment in his free agent walk year.

That's not to say he hasn't had some good games, but he's given up eight runs, seven earned in his last two starts. Nothing appears to be health-related, as his fastball is averaging 97 MPH.

Eduardo Rodriguez and Randy Vasquez 2025 stats | Jack Sommers

Eduardo Rodriguez's disappointing tenure with the Diamondbacks continued in his last outing in which he gave up nine runs on a career high 13 hits. In 25 starts dating back to 2024 he's gone 6-9 with a 5.49 ERA and had two stints on the injured list with shoulder problems.

Vasquez has given the Padres valuable innings at the back of their rotation. His peripherals do not support his ERA, but it's been that way all season.

His July 4th outing against Texas was an extreme example of that. He went six innings and gave up two runs on three hits. He walked three and struck out only one batter.