Pitching Matchups Analysis for Diamondbacks at Dodgers this Week

The Arizona Diamondbacks are used to facing long odds when playing the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite having swept the Dodgers in three straight during last year's Division Series, the D-backs are heavy underdogs once again in their upcoming three game series at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West with a 32-17 record. The Diamondbacks are 22-25, in fourth place in the division, nine games back. The probability of catching the Dodgers for the Division is small at this point. Arizona is just 1.5 games out of the NL Wild Card however, so there is certainly a pathway back to the post season.

The Dodgers' offense ranks second in the NL scoring 5.17 runs per game and are first across the board with their team slash line of .258/.340/.433, .733 OPS, 119 OPS+. They also have a league best 3.14 ERA

The Diamondbacks still rank fourth in the NL with a 4.77 R/G average. That's a little deceptive however. They've scored 70 of their 224 runs in just five outburst games. In their other 42 games, they've averaged just 3.7 R/G. Meanwhile Arizona ranks 11th with a team ERA of 4.48

The Dodgers are even dominating the team fielding rankings according to Baseball Reference with +35 defensive runs saved. The next highest team, the Braves, are +18. The Diamondbacks have the fourth highest total, with +9.

Pitching Matchups

Monday May 20th, 7:10 P.M.

Joe Mantiply LHP, 2-1, 4.67 ERA will serve as the opener. This start was originally supposed to go to Slade Cecconi, who is 1-3 with a 5.27 ERA in 27 innings. However with left-hand batters Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman following Mookie Betts in the order Torey Lovullo is hoping to keep them off the board in the first inning.

Most likely Lovullo will turn to a right hand reliever by the time the order gets to Will Smith who typically bats cleanup, and then turn the ball over to Cecconi to start either the second or third inning. Ironically, Cecconi has been lights out for the first couple of innings in almost all of his starts. But the second and third time through the order have been much worse.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP, 4-1, 3.21 ERA is coming off a bumpy no-decision against the Giants in which he gave up four runs in 5.2 innings. Most of that damage came on a three-run homer in the second inning by Luis Matos.

Yamamoto threw six scoreless innings against the D-backs on May 1st, giving up five hits and two walks while striking out five. For the year he has 53 strikeouts with just 10 walks in 47.2 innings. He does give up the occasional long ball however, having allowed six homers so far.

Tuesday, May 21st, 7:10 P.M.

Brandon Pfaadt RHP, 1-3, 4.17 ERA in 54 innings. Pfaadt has pitched much better than his ERA indicates, as he has a 3.37 FIP. He has 51 strikeouts, 10 walks, and six homers allowed, very similar numbers to Yamamoto. He also has quality starts in five of his last six outings.

Neither of Pfaadt's two regular season starts last year against the Dodgers went well, but he famously threw 4.1 scoreless innings in the game three clincher at Chase Field last year in the NLDS. Pfaadt shouldn't be intimidated pitching in Dodger Stadium. He's known for his calm demeanor regardless of the situation.

Gavin Stone RHP 4-1, 3.27 ERA in 44 innings is one of the hottest pitchers in the league at the moment. Over his last four starts he's allowed exactly one run per start while throwing 26 innings. The rookie has never faced the Diamondbacks.

Stone doesn't have an overly impressive strikeout to walk ratio (29/16) but has given up just three homers on the year.

Wednesday May 22nd 710: P.M.

Ryne Nelson RHP, 2-3, 7.06 ERA in 29.1 innings. Nelson seemed to be trending in the right direction before getting hit on the elbow by a comebacker and spending time on the injured list with the injury.

In three starts since returning he's lasted just 13.2 innings and given up 15 runs (9.88 ERA) on 29 hits, two walks and two homers. He's faced the Dodgers twice in the regular season, once in 2022 and again in 2023, throwing 12 innings and allowing just three runs. Those kinds of results seem far away at the moment however.

Tyler Glasnow RHP, 6-2, 2.90 ERA in 62 innings. Fully healthy, Glasnow has pitched like a Cy Young candidate for the Dodgers. He has 81 strikeouts, and allowed 16 walks and six homers for a 2.57 FIP

Glasnow has not faced the D-backs since 2017. The D-backs hitter with the most at bats against him is Randal Grichuk, who is 4-19, with a double and three homers. It will be interesting to see if Lovullo goes with the right handed DH on Wednesday, or sticks with his left/right platoon and starts Joc Pederson.

Closers

Dodgers closer Evan Phillips has been on the injured list since May 5th with a hamstring injury. Dave Roberts has played the matchups since then spreading the save opportunities around. The most recent saves were recored by Alex Vesia, Daniel Hudson, and J.P. Feyereisen.

The D-backs close Paul Sewald is three for three in save chances since coming off the injured list May 7th. He's not been scored upon in his last four outings.