Ketel Marte Leads Diamondbacks Into Critical Series vs Brewers

The Diamondbacks need to starst beating good teams and few are better than Milwaukee

Jul 1, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) hits a single against the San Francisco Giants in the fourth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Diamondbacks are going to convince their general manager Mike Hazen to follow through on his buy plan at the trade deadline, they're going to have to start beating good teams. They 'll be tasked to do just that starting Friday night when they host the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field for a three game series.

After that the D-backs will move on to San Diego to play the Padres for four, and then three against the Dodgers in LA before heading into the All-Star Break. It's critical that the D-backs play their best baseball during this 10-game stretch.

Jun 19, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo against the Minnesota Twins at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Torey Lovullo has managed the D-backs to an even 43-43 record on the season. They have a 30-13 record against teams under .500, but a dismal 13-30 record against teams with equal to or greater than a .500 win percentage.

While this statistic has been oft-repeated, it speaks clearly to the underlying quality of the roster and the challenges they face. If the D-backs are to be buyers, they will have start beating good teams.

They have a -26 run differential and an expected win-loss record of 40-46. They've been kept afloat in large part due to a surprisingly stout bullpen that has been excellent in high-leverage situations. The D-backs have the fifth-highest relief pitcher WPA in MLB. That is a stat that measures performance based on the leverage situation.

Ketel Marte is red-hot. He homered in four straight games for the first time in his career this past week. Since June 9, a span of 21 games and 93 PA, he's batting .329/.387/.624, 1.011 OPS, including six homers and seven doubles. He's been playing outstanding defense and even stole two bases in Wednesday's loss to the Giants.

Jun 30, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio (11) hits an RBI single during the fourth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Brewers, meanwhile, are one of the best teams in MLB. Their 53-32 record trails only the 57-31 Dodgers for the best record in the league. Their run differential is a whopping +124, which again trails only the Dodgers.

The Brewers balanced offense is led by star left fielder Jackson Chourio, and Platinum Glove second baseman Brice Turang. They have the fifth-highest runs scored total in MLB and can beat you many ways. They hit for average, get on base, slug just enough, and will small-ball you to death if you don't pay attention.

Starting Pitching Matchups

Jun 21, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Jose Cabrera reacts in the second inning against the Minnesota Twins at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Friday July 3, 6:45 p.m. MST

Kyle Harrison and Jose Cabrera pitching stats | Jack Sommers

The Brewers have worked their pitching development magic once again with Kyle Harrison. After three-plus indifferent seasons with the Giants and brief stint with the Red Sox, he was traded to Milwaukee by Boston this past offseason.

All he's done is go 8-1 with a 2.57 ERA and peripherals to match. Were it not for a flukey eight run inning in a minor league ballpark in Las Vegas, he'd have a 1.67 ERA. Harrison is dominating with mostly just a mid to high 90's four-seamer and a slurve. He throws a changeup to left-hand batters, but that pitch has been his only weakness.

Jose Cabrera made his second major league start against the Rays on June 27. He allowed four runs on seven hits, including two homers in five innings. He was electric in his MLB debut, tossing five shutout innings against the Twins June 21.

Saturday July 4, 6:40 p.m. MST

Brandon Woodruff and Merrill Kelly pitching stats | Jack Sommers

Brandon Woodruff exited his start against the D-backs on April 30 and landed on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. He returned June 22 to throw six shutout innings against the Reds, giving up just one hit and striking out 10.

He followed that up with another 5.2 scoreless innings June 28 against the Cubs, again giving up one hit, and striking out six. Suffice to say Brandon Woodruff is back to his dominating self when healthy.

Merrill Kelly's return to the Diamondbacks on a two-year, $40 million contract has been an unmitigated disaster through his first 14 starts. With an ERA near six, and peripherals even worse than that, it's difficult to remain optimistic. Kelly simply is not throwing strikes, and when he does, he's getting crushed.

Sunday July 5, 1:00 p.m. MST

Brandon Sproat and Eduardo Rodriguez pitching stats | Jack Sommers

Brandon Sproat had been the weakest link in the Brewers rotation, and presented an opportunity for the D-backs when they got to him for four runs in a victory on April 29. But Sproat went 2-0 in five starts in June with a 3.46 ERA and 3.88 FIP.

Eduardo Rodriguez has been the ace of the Diamondbacks staff in 2026 and has a bona fide case to make the NL All-Star team. Not only has he been a workhorse, getting deep into games, but his run prevention has been outstanding, as evidenced by his 2.21 ERA.

The peripherals suggest he's been fortunate, but he has a microscopic .124 average against with runners in scoring position. That's not a fluke either as the expected batting average is just .184.

Rodriguez is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA at Chase Field and the D-backs will need him to continue the magic to survive this tough series.