Josh Naylor’s Power Collapse Leaves Mariners With a Four-Year Lineup Problem

Plenty of hits. Very little damage.

Sep 5, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor (12) walks to the dugout after hitting into a double play against the Athletics during the seventh inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If anyone is counting, Josh Naylor has 142 hits. It leads the team, and should sound impressive until we ask the question that actually matters. What did those hits actually do for the Mariners?

Unfortunately, the answer is considerably flattening. Of Naylor’s 142 hits through Sept. 11, 112 of them were singles. He led the Mariners in hits while sitting fifth on the team with 192 total bases. That gap tells the story of his season better than his .265 batting average ever could. There has been plenty of contact with very little damage.

The M’s committed five years and $92.5 million to Naylor because they wanted a fixture in the middle of the order. They struggled to find a long-term fix at first base and they believed they had finally found one in Naylor. 

Instead, the first season of that contract created an even more complicated problem for their lineup. Naylor’s name is written into it for four more years, but the power Seattle expected him to supply has vanished.

Josh Naylor’s 142 Hits Can’t Hide the Mariners’ $92.5 Million Miscalculation

A team-leading hit total gives the Mariners something pleasant to place on the statsheet. But it doesn’t excuse a .359 slugging percentage from a first baseman signed to anchor the offense. Naylor finished 2024 with 31 home runs. He gave Seattle nine homers in only 54 games after arriving during the 2025 season. In 137 games this year, he has hit 10. That is one additional home run in 83 additional games. 

We can appreciate the things Naylor still does well. He puts the ball in play. He battles through at-bats. And he runs far better than anyone built like a refrigerator has any right to run, adding 26 stolen bases after swiping 30 last season. He offers very useful skills, but they can’t carry a first baseman slugging .359 through a season.

The Mariners scored 581 runs through Sept. 11, the lowest total in the AL. Their offensive failures stretched far beyond one player, but the largest position-player free-agent commitment of the Jerry Dipoto era cannot be treated like another disappointing bat in the bottom half of the order. Naylor was supposed to be part of the solution and his lack of power has become one of the reasons the Mariners still need one.

Mariners Bought High on Josh Naylor’s 2025 Finish, and Paid for It Immediately

Naylor’s first 54 games in Seattle made the contract completely understandable. He hit .299, slugged .490, and drove in 33 alongside the nine homers. He played with an attitude that the fans immediately embraced. The Mariners found a productive hitter, an aggressive baserunner and a clubhouse personality who seemed built for a team trying to sharpen its identity.

They also saw 54 games and treated them like a five-year guarantee. One season later, that decision looks painfully optimistic. Naylor’s slugging percentage has fallen by 131 points. He drove in only 16 more runs across 83 additional games. The hitter who arrived in Seattle capable of punishing mistakes has spent most of 2026 steering pitches through the infield.

T-Mobile Park makes a convenient defendant whenever a Mariners hitter loses his power. The evidence actually allows the ballpark to walk free this time. Naylor has hit five home runs at home and five on the road. And Statcast credited him with 10.8 expected homers.

He isn’t sitting on a hidden 25-homer season ruined by marine air and deep fences. His average exit velo has fallen to 87 mph, and his barrel rate dropped to 4.3 percent. The authority has disappeared along with the results.

Seattle’s 2027 Lineup Needs Power From Somewhere Else

One poor season doesn’t imply that the remaining four years of Naylor’s contract will be a bust. But the Mariners can’t rely on a bounceback season in 2027. They need to find another answer.

Naylor will still have to prove that this was an ugly detour rather than the beginning of his decline. First base is financially occupied. Naylor also has a full no-trade clause, making a quick escape unrealistic even if the Mariners wanted one. The front office must search for power wherever the roster provides an opening, whether that comes through DH, a corner outfielder or another creative addition.

Waiting for Naylor to “get back to normal” is not a trustworthy offseason plan. But before we bury Naylor’s power completely, though, his right wrist belongs in the conversation. Naylor missed two consecutive starts in June because of wrist soreness. The discomfort surfaced again in August, when he was held out after visibly grimacing during swings. 

Naylor had only five home runs through May, before the issue became public. The power problem had already arrived. The lingering discomfort may have made it worse and prevented him from ever swinging his way out of it.

That gives Seattle a legitimate reason for cautious optimism. An offseason of rest and treatment could restore some force to Naylor’s swing.

Seattle has to build around production it can reasonably count on. If Naylor returns to the hitter who slugged .490 during his first 54 games with the club, his rebound becomes a major bonus instead of the foundation holding everything up. The contract may still recover. The first season cannot.