Mariners Turned an A-Minus Offseason Into an F Season by Mistaking Continuity for Depth

The Mariners received an A-minus in February, and then an F in September. You want to talk about a crater between those two grades. ESPN looked at the Mariners after the offseason and saw a defending division champion that had retained Josh Naylor, acquired Brendan Donovan and kept most of the roster that won 90 games before coming within one victory of the World Series. Seven months later, ESPN looked at the finished product and absolutely cooked it.

To be honest, both grades made sense which should bother the Mariners. The A-minus rewarded a series of sensible transactions. The F exposed a roster that could function only when too many things went according to plan. The Mariners kept a good team together. They never built enough protection around it.

Why ESPN Gave the Mariners’ Offseason an A-Minus

The Mariners signed Naylor to a five-year contract, finally giving first base a long-term answer they needed. They traded for Donovan, a versatile infielder with strong on-base skills who could play all over the diamond.

They also added left-handed reliever Jose A. Ferrer and brought in Rob Refsnyder to punish left-handed pitching. Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez departed, but ESPN viewed Polanco as the only significant contributor missing from the 2025 roster.

There was no big time Shohei Ohtani-esque acquisition. Quite frankly, not many thought they needed one. They were bringing back an AL West champion with some new additions and one of MLB’s most celebrated pitching rotations. ESPN believed those moves were going to be enough to keep Seattle atop the division. In theory, they weren’t wrong and that probably inflated the A-minus.

It was a grade for retaining the core, addressing first base and adding complementary pieces without ripping apart a club that had nearly reached the World Series. That also doesn’t mean the warning signs weren’t there.

ESPN still questioned Seattle’s backup-catching situation and its lack of a proven sixth starter after Logan Evans suffered a season-ending injury. Those concerns were treated as quibbles because the starting roster looked so strong.

We all made some version of the same calculation. Keep the 90-win group together, add Donovan, get healthier seasons from the rotation and let the stars carry the offense again. But, maybe coffee was spilled over the paperwork, because that’s not what the Mariners printed out for the 2026 season.

The Mariners Earned Every Bit of ESPN’s F

ESPN reported that Seattle was 47-44 and leading the AL West after beating Toronto on July 5. On FanGraphs, they had a 63 percent chance of winning the division and an 85 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

The Mariners had a +27 run differential at the time. They produced a -90 mark afterward. Only the Athletics, Rockies and Reds allowed more runs during that stretch.

The rotation that was supposed to stabilize everything ranked in the bottom five in ERA after July 5. The offense ranked 28th in runs. The defense stood 26th in defensive runs saved. Andrés Muñoz was tied for the major-league lead with 10 blown saves. In totality, they were among the worst teams in the league.

Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez never supplied the sustained superstar surge Seattle expected. The complementary players couldn’t replace that kind of production. The pitching couldn’t save them. And the defense continued to make their jobs harder.

One weakness leaned on another until the entire roster collapsed under the weight.

Seattle Cannot Sell the Same Plan Again

The A-minus was a grade for the transaction list. The F was a grade for the roster’s architecture. That was always going to be one of the biggest problems the M’s were going to face coming into the season. You can have a talented roster and still have poor roster construction.

It’s not like Naylor wasn’t a worthy investment. He was. Donovan was still a logical acquisition. This isn’t an argument that every winter decision was a mistake. The problem is that Seattle treated those decisions like the final coat of paint when the roster still needed more support. The Mariners built around the best versions of their most important players. They expected the rotation to remain a competitive advantage. They expected Raleigh to continue to produce the same power, and for Rodríguez to take another step forward. Those expectations formed a contender, but they didn’t provide a safety net.

Dismissing 2026 as an outlier would be a huge mistake. It’s fair to think that the rotation should pitch better next season. Raleigh and Rodríguez should be more productive. Injured players should return healthy and their young talent will be more prepared. That doesn’t mean we can’t demand a better roster.

Seattle needs established offense beyond its biggest stars. They don’t need to count on Dominic Canzone hitting another 20+ homers. They need more redundancy. They need to be deep. A bullpen that falls apart after losing its setup man is not a strong bullpen.

The Mariners do not need to win another A-minus offseason grade for the exercise. They need to build a team capable of losing a player, surviving a bad month and continuing to resemble a contender.

Add us as a preferred source on Google