Experts predict Pete Alonso's free agency contract

Several MLB experts weighed in on what Mets slugger Pete Alonso might make in free agency this upcoming offseason.

Aug 12, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Barring injury, New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is essentially guaranteed to opt out of his two-year, $54 million contract (which includes a player option after the 2025 season) once his current campaign concludes.

This is owed to Alonso's clear desire for a longer-term contract. And while the market for right-handed hitting first basemen in their 30s typically isn't conducive to securing long-term contracts, the fact that Alonso is hitting .268 with an .871 OPS and 28 home runs to this point in the season suggests that he's going to get something closer to the contract he was seeking with the Mets last season.

Read more: Carlos Mendoza assesses Mets' worry about Ryan Helsley

Therefore, the question becomes more so what Alonso's next contract would look like, and which team he'll end up playing for come 2026.

Aug 14, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) waves after a ceremony celebrating his new Mets all time home run record before a game against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Experts Speak On Pete Alonso's Potential Free Agency Contract

SNY's Danny Abriano and The Athletic's Tim Britton were guests on an August 19 episode of SNY's Mets Off Day Live show. And at one point in their discussion, they spoke about what Alonso might expect to make in the free agency market this upcoming offseason.

After noting that the 14-year, $500 million deal that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed with the Toronto Blue Jays earlier this year has set the market for first basemen, Britton said, "I think [Alonso] is looking for the kind of five, six-year deal. $24 million would be the salary for next year [if Alonso opted in with the Mets], that is a base, trying to build off of that going forward.

"Whether the Mets are the team that gives that to him, whether he's able to land that in a way he couldn't last year, that's going to be an interesting story all winter," he added.

Danny Abriano then said, "I think four, five, six [years], around $25 [million] AAV is kind of where [Alonso's contract] is gonna come in. I don't think there's that monster deal out there for Pete... Would have been a different story if Pete stayed red-hot, as he was the first few months of the season. But he's gonna be coming off a pretty good campaign."

Abriano also noted that he thinks Alonso wants to stay in New York, and the Mets would likely want him back as well (fans certainly do), but that the front office probably isn't going to go outside of their budget or offer him a longer-term deal than they believe he's worth to bring him back.

In other words, the two sides are in the same place they were last offseason. But Alonso's success in 2025 might make a longer-term deal more appealing for MLB front offices.