Mets' starting rotation has widest range of possibilities amongst playoff teams

The New York Mets starting rotation possesses the most upside amongst playoff teams.

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When it comes to the New York Mets, everyone is keeping an eye on their starting rotation down the stretch.

Their starting pitching was a problem for a large chunk of the season, setting records for their lack of ability to work deep into games. Outside of David Peterson, manager Carlos Mendoza could not count on any of his starters to consistently work into the sixth inning or later.

This weakness put a ton of pressure and stress on the bullpen to perform, and New York's relievers have been greatly taxed from regularly being called upon to pitch more than half of a game. It should come as no surprise that several costly meltdowns have occurred as a result. Building that bridge to lights-out closer Edwin Diaz has still been an issue at times, especially with their trade deadline acquisition, Ryan Helsley, performing so poorly.

Read More: Mets deadline acquisition may pitch himself off a playoff roster

Mets rotation ranked near bottom amongst postseason teams

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When projecting how the Mets will look on the mound down the stretch, it isn’t too much of a surprise that the numbers are not pretty. As shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), their projected WAR numbers for a postseason rotation are second to last amongst teams currently in the playoff field, with only the Chicago Cubs' rotation having a lower projection. The trio of Nolan McLean, Peterson and Sean Manaea is projected to produce a 0.92 WAR and an ERA of 3.73.

On paper, putting your faith in a rookie with four career MLB starts under his belt and two veteran lefties who have about league-average ERA numbers is not encouraging. Yet, New York doesn’t find itself at the bottom of these rankings; instead, they come in at No. 9, ahead of the Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres.

Mets youth in rotation could set team apart down stretch

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The reason for that? Projecting the Mets’ rotation for the remainder of the regular season, let alone the postseason, is virtually impossible. That is because no one knows who the team will be turning to over the course of that time. There is a wide range of possibilities and outcomes, with New York’s starting pitching possessing the highest upside of any playoff hopeful club.

McLean is taking the baseball world by storm with eye-popping metrics. He has all the traits teams want to see in an ace, from his stuff on the mound to the demeanor he carries himself with. It is not crazy to think he could be starting Game 1 of a series for the team in a few weeks.

Manaea being included in the mix for The Athletic's projections is a bit surprising because he may not even last the duration of the season in the rotation. He has struggled to recapture the magic from 2024 after getting a late start to the campaign because of injury. But Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, the other two top pitching prospects who debuted after McLean, could factor into the mix.

Their lack of MLB experience makes doing projections very difficult, but they have shown plenty of promise. If they continue to excel and prove the lights aren’t too bright, they should strongly be considered.

Kodai Senga is wild card for Mets in postseason

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Don’t forget Kodai Senga, either. The expected ace of the staff graciously accepted a demotion to Triple-A so that he could work on his mechanics. Since returning to the mound on July 11 following a 28-day absence, he has not been the same. He fired four shutout innings in his return, but has struggled since.

In eight starts before the demotion, Senga had an unsightly 6.56 ERA and 6.11 FIP in 35.2 innings pitched, with 22 walks being issued. Home runs were a problem as well, giving up eight long balls.

If he can figure things out in the minor leagues, Senga has the talent to anchor a staff for a postseason push. Injuries are the only thing that have held him back during his MLB career thus far. But when he is on the mound, he has proven capable of performing like an ace.

With so many unknown variables, correctly projecting the New York rotation is an impossibility. The potential for them to have the most dominant postseason rotation exists. But on the other end of the spectrum, there is certainly a chance they have the worst group as well. Only time will tell, but betting on the young guys likely gives the Mets the best chance to compete.