New York Mets lineup construction a hot topic of conversation

The New York Mets lineup construction has been a hot topic of conversation after adding Juan Soto to the mix alongside Francisco Lindor.

Feb 19, 2025; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto (22) takes batting practice during a spring training workout at Clover Park. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The New York Mets are spoiled for choice when it comes to the top of their lineup, and manager Carlos Mendoza has said he is "leaning" toward batting Juan Soto second behind Francisco Lindor. But should he?

It is a problem that all teams dream of having, though it is rare that more than a handful of teams ever do. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Atlanta Braves are the only other teams in MLB right now with a plethora of options to choose from for how to construct the top of their lineup.

The Mets created this conundrum when they added Soto on the largest contract in the history of professional sports and then reunited with Pete Alonso in early February. While Mendoza thinks he has it mapped out, is that plan the right path to take?

Carlos Mendoza tells @gappleSNY that he's currently leaning towards hitting Francisco Lindor leadoff and Juan Soto second in the lineup.

Catch the full interview TONIGHT on Mets Hot Stove!

⏰: 6 p.m.
📺: SNY pic.twitter.com/8O4ntgQ6Ef

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) February 19, 2025

"We can say that Soto will go two," Mendoza said after being asked if it was fair to assume that Lindor would lead off. "The good thing is, we've got great options. There's a lot of different ways that I could go."

It has led to many wide-ranging discussions on social media and from the talking heads on sports shows, with everyone weighing in on how they believe the lineup should be constructed. The debates range from the longstanding belief of an on-base guy (Soto) leading off to the newer philosophy that your best hitter (still Soto) should be in the two-hole. Some have even clamored for Soto to bat clean up.

Harold proposes his optimal Mets lineup after manager Carlos Mendoza said he is leaning towards Juan Soto hitting 2nd behind Francisco Lindor. What do you think?#MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/n2onXsPtKb

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 20, 2025

"I would have him hitting behind Soto," Harold Reynolds said of the matter on the MLB Network morning show "Hot Stove." "I've gotta have somebody that makes that other team think. Right now... I'm walking Soto in a number of scenarios. I'm bringing my nasty righty in, and I'm going after Pete, I'm going after [Mark] Vientos."

While many have weighed in on the matter, with no clear agreement being reached, who has it right? There is merit to both sides of the discussion, but lineup construction in 2025, when stats and analytics are freely and readily available for all, is a science.

Ryan Spaeder, author of the book Incredible Baseball Stats: The Coolest, Strangest Stats and Facts in Baseball History, took a look at batting situations across 2024 to see which spot in the lineup faced the most important situations. His results were surprising.

The best player on every single team should bat leadoff in every single game.

In 2024, across MLB, leadoff hitters had 10,711 plate appearances with the potential to either tie the game or take the lead — 957 more than three-hole hitters. This includes additional opportunities…

— Ryan M. Spaeder (@theaceofspaeder) January 3, 2025

"In 2024, across MLB, leadoff hitters had 10,711 plate appearances with the potential to either tie the game or take the lead — 957 more than three-hole hitters. This includes additional opportunities in high-leverage scenarios."

While many may look at that and say, "Well, of course! The leadoff hitter takes the first at-bat of the game for his team!" it goes even deeper than that. The batter leading off the lineup continues to have the most high-leverage opportunities throughout the game.

Number of Opportunities to Tie Game or Take Lead	Leadoff Hitter	Third Hitter in Lineup
Entire Game	10,711	9,754
After First Inning	6,130	5,426
From Seventh Inning On	1,921	1,751
From Ninth Inning On	685	604

With the leadoff hitter seeing more important scoring opportunities, it makes sense that a team's best hitter should bat in that position. The Dodgers went that route with Ohtani (after Mookie Betts went on the injured list) last year, and the Mets utilized the strategy, too, with Lindor in 2024.

While Lindor was the best hitter on the team last year, that is no longer the case with Juan Soto on the roster. Not only is Soto the best hitter on the team, but he is also the best all-around hitter in the sport with his ability to hit for power, average, and the best plate discipline MLB has seen in years.

Read more: Juan Soto surprises teammate with car after number swap

While Mendoza may currently be leaning toward sticking with what worked in 2024 and batting Lindor in the leadoff position, as a whole, over the length of the season, the Mets would be better served with Soto in that spot.

The difference in success may seem negligible, and it certainly could be in a small sample size. Over the length of a 162-game season, however, that negligible success adds up, and it could prove to be the difference between finishing with the first National League Wild Card berth or missing out completely.