Examining the Mets' Options with Clay Holmes as Trade Deadline Approaches

The New York Mets have a very intriguing situation set up for themselves at the trade deadline. After declaring themselves open for business late last week, they are well-positioned to control the Aug. 3 deadline as the seller with the most interesting pieces available.

Rentals like Freddy Peralta and Brooks Raley figure to be easy sells, but the team's controllable pieces beyond the season also have intrigue. Luke Weaver has drawn all the attention, but the Mets have a decision to make soon regarding someone who fits both categories: Clay Holmes.

Holmes is theoretically under contract for 2027, but he is likely to exercise an opt-out in his deal since he can likely beat one year and $12 million on the open market. The Mets are also keeping a close eye on Holmes' return from a broken leg, as he threw a live bullpen over the weekend, putting him in line to return to the rotation in a few weeks.

David Stearns is treating the 2026 deadline differently than 2023's, when the Mets sold everything that wasn't bolted down to reload the farm system. With a clear plan to try to win in 2027, the Mets have a few different options to consider with Holmes.

The case for trading Clay Holmes

There is an argument to be made that if Minnesota and Detroit don't sell at the deadline, Holmes would be the second most valuable starter on the market behind Peralta. Given the number of teams in need of starting pitching help, the Mets could set a high price for Holmes, netting either a top prospect from a needy team or an excess part that can help the big club in 2027.

Moving on from Holmes would create a hole in the rotation, which the Mets would use in the short term to evaluate pitching prospects like Zach Thornton, Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger. If the Mets don't like what they see, they could always explore a reunion with Holmes in the offseason, assuming he opts out, netting them both a talent infusion and Holmes when things really matter in 2027.

New York Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes prepares to throw a pitch against the San Francisco Giants. — New York Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes (35) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the seventh inning at Oracle Park. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Most players who get dealt away don't return to the teams that traded them, but there have been notable exceptions in recent years. The New York Yankees re-signed Aroldis Chapman after the Chicago Cubs rented him in 2016, while the Mets themselves brought back Jay Bruce in 2018 after trading him away at the 2017 deadline.

Holmes has expressed a willingness to stay in New York, so there is a chance he'd be open to returning after getting shopped. That, however, is no guarantee.

The case for keeping Clay Holmes without an extension

This argument would hinge on the fact that teams may not be willing to pay a strong deadline price for a pitcher who has missed a ton of time with a broken leg. Even though Holmes' transition to a starter rates among Stearns' best moves as the Mets' President of Baseball Operations, that history doesn't mean much when a current injury is weighed in.

The idea with this strategy is for the Mets to let Holmes come back and pitch the second half of the season before allowing him to test free agency. If Holmes does opt out, the Mets would have the ability to use a qualifying offer on Holmes, giving them some draft capital back if he does leave in free agency.

Stearns would surely listen to offers for Holmes and have to decide whether or not the value he would get in a trade would exceed the compensation they would get from the qualifying offer. It is also important to note that only the Mets can use a qualifying offer on Holmes since traded players are exempt from them in the same season they are dealt.

The case for extending Clay Holmes

The third option here is pursuing a contract extension with Holmes, essentially ripping up the last year of his current deal and seeking a longer-term arrangement with a pay raise. Holmes is reportedly open to extension talks, and SNY's Chelsea Janes reported that the Mets are set to talk to him about a potential deal this week.

The Mets and Clay Holmes expect to begin potential extension talks in the coming days, says @chelsea_janes

Chelsea is joined by @mmargaux8 to answer your questions on Mets Mailbag pic.twitter.com/utVRGiIElW
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) July 17, 2026

Giving Holmes a deal in the range of Sean Manaea's three-year deal worth $75 million would appear to be a fair price. The Mets should value Holmes, who wants to stay and has proven he can perform in New York, and the going rate for a quality starter exceeds $20 million a year.

Doing an extension would also maintain a good relationship with Holmes, which could be a big win for Stearns in the clubhouse. Taking care of one of their own who has earned a new deal could get more buy-in from a group that has appeared fractured at various points of the season.

Keeping Holmes and using the qualifying offer on him could offer unnecessary strain on the relationship, which would essentially neuter Holmes' market coming off an injury and into a potential lockout. The Mets would also gain some key certainty for their 2027 rotation, which can only count Nolan McLean and potentially Christian Scott as givens entering the offseason.

Which path should the Mets take?

The best option the Mets have is to work on an extension with Holmes, who has more value to the 2027 Mets than whatever they could get for him in a trade. Having to fill up to three rotation spots ahead of a lockout is not a smart idea, so taking care of one of their own who has shown he can handle pitching in New York is a must.

The Mets have a few weeks to talk with Holmes before the deadline and have a good idea of what kind of extension he would want. Smart teams keep key players around instead of shopping them for what could amount to lottery tickets, especially if they plan on winning soon, so extending Holmes is the best course of action.

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