Why the Mets' 2026 Deadline Sale Will Be Different Than 2023's

When the Mets knocked Paul Skenes out in the first inning on Opening Day on their way to an emphatic win, it would have been unimaginable that the season would end in complete irrelevance before the summer. Injuries and poor performance torpedoed the season, costing Carlos Mendoza his job and leading to serious consequences for the entire organization.

A deadline sale is inevitable, and the Mets could be well positioned to clean up if they make the right pieces available. The Mets' poor record and lack of success with an inflated roster have raised the prospect of a deadline fire sale or purge like 2023, when the team sent out highly paid players like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander alongside typical rentals like Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and David Robertson.

Fans are rightfully fed up with the direction the team has headed over the past calendar year, venting their misguided frustrations about the Brandon Nimmo trade and being open to radical ideas like shopping Francisco Lindor, which won't happen for good reasons. One thing that is clear, however, is that the 2026 Mets won't go into full fire-sale mode like the 2023 team did.

Why a fire sale doesn't make sense for the Mets

A major reason for the 2023 fire sale was that the Mets viewed 2024, internally, as a transition year. Carrying starting pitchers nearing 40 years old whose best value would be in 2024 made little sense, so cashing out on Verlander and Scherzer was a prudent strategy to restock the farm system.

The 2026 Mets appear much closer to being a playoff team than they were in 2023, thanks to the presence of key contributors up and down the roster. The Mets' outfield is set for the foreseeable future while Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco and Luis Torrens all look set for important roles in the lineup. Bo Bichette could also be in this mix if he opts in, leaving only first and second base as open questions there.

The pitching staff does need work, but the Mets already have Nolan McLean and Christian Scott in the fold, while Clay Holmes's recent willingness to extend could add a third valuable starter to the mix. The bullpen also has at least three key members under contract: Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazobán, while rehabbing Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez could also factor into the setup corps in 2027.

Devin Williams pitches. — Devin Williams will return to the Mets' bullpen next season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Better health and trimming more underperforming players from the roster, such as Kodai Senga and Mark Vientos, could make the Mets a more well-rounded team. Targeting free agents to address needs, such as an ace if they don't re-sign Freddy Peralta and a second baseman, could cut down on the Mets' holes with more proven players who have solid track records.

What the Mets' trade deadline should look like

To be clear, the Mets are well positioned to offer valuable pieces at the trade deadline as one of the few clear sellers in the market. The Giants have a lot of dead weight in terms of bloated contracts, while the Royals, Rockies and Angels don't have the same types of pieces that can generate deadline fever like the Mets do.

If the Twins decide not to sell Joe Ryan, Peralta would be the most attractive rental starter on the market outside of Tarik Skubal. Lefty relievers Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter should net a solid prospect or two in a trade, while outfielder Luis Robert Jr. could incite a nice bidding war if he can demonstrate a return to health after the All-Star Break.

Moving on from those four players, along with other pending free agents like Tyrone Taylor, should provide some valuable pieces for a farm system that needs a boost after graduating impact players like A.J. Ewing, Carson Benge and McLean. The real intrigue comes with players under team control for 2027, like Weaver and Alvarez, who could generate demand on the trade market.

Weaver has drawn a ton of interest as a reliever, having a tremendous year with closing experience in New York. ESPN's Jeff Passan recently suggested Weaver would be a perfect fit for the Pirates, who have been using a closer by committee all season, and they wouldn't be the only team eager to add Weaver to their bullpen for this year and next.

Luke Weaver pitches. — Luke Weaver is among the Mets' top trade pieces ahead of the 2026 MLB trade deadline. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If the Mets were operating under true fire-sale principles, they would sell high on Weaver right now to maximize the prospect return he could generate. That won't be the case, however, as Cohen recently indicated during a podcast appearance with reporters Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman that he expects President of Baseball Operations David Stearns to be creative in building a winner in 2027.

Weaver has tremendous value to the Mets if they hope to win in 2027 as an elite setup man for Williams or the actual closer if the Mets decide to flip their roles. Any deal the Mets make involving Weaver should involve pieces that could help them more in 2027 than simply keeping Weaver, which is a high bar to clear.

The same holds true for Alvarez, who has been frustratingly inconsistent but has a chance to be the Mets' long-term answer at catcher with club control through 2029. Moving Alvarez for the sake of selling high is a bad idea, but if a team like the Twins were open to moving Ryan if Alvarez were part of their return, the Mets would have to entertain it.

It is clear that the Mets plan to contend in 2027, with Juan Soto still in his prime and Lindor approaching the end of his. It makes little sense to dump useful players under contract for next season for minor league lottery tickets who won't be in the majors for another two or three years in that scenario.

The state of the Mets' roster means they can be very picky with non-rentals, setting a very high price and only moving the player if another team meets said price. Given that reality, it's unlikely the Mets will do much more than move on from rental players or change-of-scenery candidates by Aug. 3 because they don't need to.

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