The Biggest Free-Agent Mistake the Mets Must Avoid This Winter

The New York Mets have plenty of decisions to make this winter, but one free-agent mistake could derail their offseason.

New York Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns must be strategic with his offseason moves this winter. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With the regular season officially over, the New York Mets can now turn their attention to what's sure to be a crucial offseason.

New York has already handled two major internal matters, removing the interim tag from manager Andy Green and hiring former Minnesota Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey as a senior advisor under David Stearns. Now, the focus shifts to the roster.

The Mets don't have many expiring contracts to speak of, with Bo Bichette's potential opt-out representing the most impactful decision. If Bichette opts in, he will be owed $42 million for 2027.

After missing the playoffs for the second consecutive year, New York has every reason to be aggressive this offseason. But in their urgency to return to October, Stearns and the rest of the front office can't afford to repeat one costly mistake.

The Mets need to learn from their past mistakes

One of Steve Cohen's most famous quotes when taking over the Mets was that the team was not going to "spend like drunken sailors," despite having the resources to do so. However, New York has exceeded MLB's luxury tax threshold for four consecutive years.

The spending itself isn't the problem. It's where the Mets have chosen to spend that money that has gotten them into trouble. In each of the last two offseasons, New York has invested significant money in middle-tier free agents who came with considerable risk.

Two offseasons ago, they signed Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million contract. Last winter, they signed Jorge Polanco to a two-year, $40 million deal.

Both contracts were immediately questioned at the time of their signings. Montas had major injury concerns and was coming off a season when he posted a 4.84 ERA. Polanco, meanwhile, was coming off his best season in over three years, but his durability remained a major question mark.

Mets fans know well how both contracts have turned out thus far. Montas pitched in eight games, struggling to a 6.28 ERA, before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2026. Polanco played in just 37 games, batting .148 before going down with left ankle bursitis.

Stearns has continued to take chances on risky players available on shorter-term deals rather than explore other avenues to fill those needs. One such alternative last offseason was Willson Contreras, who was with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Contreras fit exactly what the Mets needed in several ways. He provided a right-handed power bat, played strong defense at first base, and was owed less than $20 million. But acquiring him would have required the Mets to part with prospect capital. Instead, Stearns leaned on the team's financial resources, signing Polanco in free agency.

Both the Montas and Polanco deals have considerably hampered the Mets over the past two seasons. In 2025, their rotation became a major weakness, while this season they struggled to find consistent production at first base.

Entering this offseason, the Mets have several areas of the roster needing upgrades, but the free-agent class lacks high-end talent beyond a handful of names.

That lack of high-end talent is especially apparent when looking at the starting pitching market. Tarik Skubal is undoubtedly the top target, but after him, the options thin out, with Trevor Rogers, Michael King, and Clay Holmes representing the next tier.

While all three starters have upside, they also come with varying degrees of risk. The trade market could offer more appealing alternatives, such as Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, and Reid Detmers, all of whom better fit the caliber of ace the Mets desperately need.

Stearns built consistent winners in Milwaukee without the financial resources he has now in New York, forcing him to find creative ways to improve the roster. Cohen's spending power should only add to those options, not make free agency the default option.

Simply put, Stearns can't afford to force another risky free-agent signing when a better solution may be available through the trade market.

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