Why Brandon Nimmo's Performance Shows Mets Will Win That Trade in the Long Run

The New York Mets made the unpopular decision to break up their core in the offseason. It has been a mixed bag of results. While the Pete Alonso call has backfired, with fans voicing their displeasure about it at Citi Field last week, the trade of Brandon Nimmo to Texas that started it all appears to have a much more favorable outcome for the team.

On the surface level, the Mets lost the trade for the 2026 season. Marcus Semien, who the Mets got to be their new second baseman, has been a brutal disappointment, hitting .217 with 14 home runs, 48 RBI, and a .620 OPS, a combination that has been worth just 0.2 Wins Above Replacement due to a dramatic defensive decline.

Nimmo, on the other hand, has hit .261 with 14 home runs, 61 RBI, and a .734 OPS in 150 games for the Rangers this season. While that production has been worth 1.3 WAR, it is still a steady drop-off from his performance over the past two years with the Mets, where he was a 2.3 WAR player in 2024 and a 2.9 WAR player in 2025.

Why the Mets will come out ahead on the Brandon Nimmo trade in the long run

Seeing nearly a full season of work for this trade indicates that Stearns made the right call to move on from Nimmo. While the Mets surely thought they'd get a more graceful decline from Semien, the move also opened up outfield spots for Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing, each of whom has established themselves as building blocks for the future.

At least one of them, probably Ewing, wouldn't be on the big-league roster if Nimmo were still around. The Mets also stand to gain financially from this deal, as Semien's contract runs for two more years, while Nimmo's has another four years on it, taking him through 2030 with Texas.

Nimmo is already showing some signs of defensive decline at 33, which isn't good for a player under contract until he is 37. The move to Texas' spacious Globe Life Field hasn't been a good fit for Nimmo's offensive game, which has seen his counting stats drop to levels he hasn't seen since 2022, when a tremendous defensive campaign in center field helped the veteran achieve a career-high 5.0 WAR.

There is a realistic possibility that we have already seen the best of Nimmo's offensive game, which could mean his contract is underwater for Texas by 2028, which is the same spot they were in when they moved on from Semien. The money in the two deals is comparable, but the Mets will be free of their obligations to Semien after the 2028 season, while Nimmo will still be under contract for another two years.

That two-year escape hatch could come in handy if a salary cap is added to the league's economic system in the new CBA, which will remove a bad deal from New York's books for the long haul. Even if the current system remains in place with more restrictive penalties for exceeding the luxury tax, it is smart business for the Mets to move on from bad money, which they have accumulated a lot of lately, as soon as they can.

In the end, it appears this situation is reminiscent of Branch Rickey's famous mantra that it's always better to move on from a player one year too early than one year too late. The way the Mets' season played out indicated that Nimmo's presence could have helped this year, especially given the amount of time Juan Soto missed due to injury, but it is better for the franchise's long-term planning not to have him around.

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