If The Orioles Are Bargain-Hunting For A New CF, This Is Their Guy

The Orioles need a new centerfielder for 2027. No one would dispute that.

Ideally they need someone with a superior glove and an adequate hit tool that would make you want to play him everyday, whether against a lefty of a righty. Heck, of the realistic options – or quasi-realistic options – we’re explained why the Twins Byron Buxton should be the top target (even if it takes Gunnar Henderson to land him) and we certainly have covered the Orioles in terms of other high-profile free-agent and potential trade options that could fix this badly broken outfield.

But we also know that baseball failure Mike Elias almost never does the right thing and that these feckless private-equity billionaires are not going to spend big and that the goal is to win 82-86 games as cheaply as possible and try to win on the margins. So we, of course, are not going to merely espouse the high-end stuff that could right Elias’s years of ills (not that Steven Kwan or Buxton are breaking the bank), but we’ll offer some suggestions that don’t carry a prospect cost and won’t force them to outbid big-market franchises.

After talking to our buddy Dan Szymborski, one of the smartest baseball people we know who helps drive the ZIPS projections at fangraphs.com, and who is a lifelong O’s fan, he got me thinking a little differently about former Jays centerfielder Daulton Varsho (new episode of “The Daily Flock” with Dan will drop Wednesday morning). He made the case for Varsho’s hit took rebounding next season and he far prefers him to another oscillating CF in New York’s Trent Grisham and maintains Varsho is still close to the peak in MLB OF defending.

“He’s a far superior centerfielder and he’s not going to cost nearly as much,” Szymborski pointed out. And, in fact, while Grisham might pull down $25M a year (possibly to stay with the Yankees), many a suggesting more like a $13M price tag for Varsho and coming off a down offensive season perhaps you can get a one-year flier on Varsho.

And man, after watching the Brewers and Dodgers and Rays excel at outfield run prevention in the deepest regions of the postseason, wouldn’t that be a novel concept in Birdland? Here’s why I could get down with this option (especially if another outfielder was added to the mix like Ian Happ in left field – who will cost $20M-plus).

Plus-Plus Defending

Aug 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros center fielder Daulton Varsho (18) makes a catch on a fly ball during the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Varsho doesn’t have a good arm but neither did Cedric Mullins and he held down CF for a long time. He makes up for it with incredible instincts and athleticism and expert positioning. He was in the 93rd percentile in range last season despite struggling at the plate and bouncing from the Jays to the Astros, but entering his age 30 season he is still refined in the outfield.

As recently as 2024, he produced a fielding run-value of +16 in Toronto, he already knows all the ballparks in the AL East downpat and he commands things so well and understands the leadership and communication part of the job (in a way Colton Cowser absolutely does not) that he makes the corner guys better. He understands the rigors of playing 1000+ innings at center in a season and knows how to protect his body . This guy is routinely posting 140 games a year and statcast and fangraphs rated him as a top 10 CF even in an off year in outs above average.

Cowser, for the truthers out there, was nowhere near that range.

The Price Is Right

Maybe it’s even closer to one-year $12M? This is a weird free-agent market that doesn’t offer much and with the lockout looming some teams might be extra fragile and with so much uncertainty many lower-tier and mid-tier free agents might prefer to get a bird in hand sooner rather than later?

Bounce-Back Candidate?

Jul 29, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Daulton Varsho (5) hits a RBI infield single against the Washington Nationals during the seventh inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Varsho has posted three seasons of 20 homers or more and has driven in runs at his best and should be looked at as a guy batting seventh or lower if the Orioles really want to build a contending lineup in 2027.

I’m not going to lie – there are holes in the profile. He hits breaking balls like Cowser hits offspeed pitches. But Varsho, not old at 29, didn’t hit fastballs as well last season but usually slugs them above league average. There is reason to think he could get back to that. He doesn’t walk nearly as much as you would like for a guy who can move some.

The good news is, he understands fundamental baseball and is not lost on the basepaths and is at least in the 60th percentile in base running value. Varsho has 65 steals in his career and has only been caught stealing 15 times. It’s reasonable he could steal 15 bases and be thrown out once or twice.

That’s in short supply in Baltimore. He also has a career .730 OPS with runners in scoring position with a healthy slug, so unlike many who have worn this uniform under Elias, there is reason to believe he can handle the bat in those situations.

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