The Orioles Will Struggle With The Surging Cubs If They Fail To Do These 3 Things

The Orioles experimentation with the top of the lineup needs a critical rethink ahead of this lefty-heavy series from their opponent

Jul 1, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) high fives shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) after they score on his three run home run during the fifth inning against then San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In a first-half that has been mostly lost, again, for the Baltimore Orioles, they have managed to win two of their last three series against National League teams.

Continuing that trend this week against the surging Chicago Cubs will not be easy. The Cubs have a powerful top half of the lineup that is doing more damage on the road (yeah, away from Wrigley Field) than most teams in MLB ad the Cubs bring the second-best record in baseball over their last 20 games (14-6) and fourth-best in baseball over their last 30 games (18-12) to Camden Yards.

They also will be throwing two lefties against the Orioles – and middling lefties at that; the kind that tend to cause Baltimore’s lineup to tie itself into knots. Matthew Boyd and David Peterson (who was awful with the Mets before being peddled to Chicago) shouldn’t strike fear in anyone, but the O’s are 10-16 vs lefties this season (24th in MLB) and were 22-25 vs lefties in 2025, so this will probably be a struggle.

Here are the keys to the series:

Don’t Bat Taylor Ward Third

Rookie (overmatched) skipper Craig Albernaz just left lefty Gunnar Henderson leadoff against Reds left Nick Lodolo on Sunday (he went 0-4) as he tries to pretend this is going to fix a lineup that has been held to three runs or less in six of the last nine games. Since moving Henderson to the top spot a week ago, that’s meant Taylor Ward batting third. And that can't happen.

That can’t happen at Camden Yards where Ward has zero home runs and just four doubles and eight RBIs ALL SEASON. This is a homer-reliant team, because that’s all team-building failure Mike Elias is capable of. And they are 19th in homers since June 1, which is why they are 18th in runs scoring since June 1; it’s never hard to figure out with these stubborn simpletons in charge.

When they do hit the homer, there’d best be someone one base already, so honestly Ward – a walk machine above everything else – should probably just slot back to leadoff or, simply embrace the fact that Blaze Alexander (another righty bat) leads MLB in batting average since April 28 (.366) with a .415 OBP since then and let him try the leadoff spot.

Boyd has already allowed four homers in 24 IP to righties this season (righties are batting .298 vs him), so don’t get cute with a lefty leadoff guy and get Alexander up in the lineup.

Stay Away From PCA

It’s going to be problematic to pitch around the danger man in this series, Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. We’ve documented around here what Alexander has done since April 28, when he turned his season around. Guess who else did the same right around then? PCA, who leads MLB with a ridiculous 1044 OPS since then and a ridiculous WRC+ of 183.

Gulp.

And problem is, the top of the Cubs lineup is filled with other guys who are in the top 50 in MLB in runs driven in away from home, like Dansby Swanson (36) or Michael Bush (36) or Seiya Suzuki (33). If nothing else, getting ahead of the count against this superstar is imperative; the Cubs have the second-best walk rate in MLB on the road (10.1%) and the truly scary thing is the guys batting 7-9 for them this season, away from Wrigley, have a 9.5% walk rate, so there is no dropoff.

If PCA has a big series the Orioles are cooked. I wouldn't be in a hurry to challenge him.

Generate Swing-And-Miss

This isn’t a strength for the Orioles pitching staff, though it’s been trending way up for Trevor Rogers (Thursday’s starter) lately and Wednesday’s starter, Dean Kremer, tends to get more of it when he leans into this curveball. Tuesday’s starter, Shane Baz, has struck out more than five in two of his last three starts, would be nice if he kept sprinkling in that change-up (a weapon for him in Tampa); if he tries to throw fastballs past this bunch he will be in trouble.

The Orioles defense stinks overall, and the more outs this staff can register for themselves, the better. The Cubs don’t hit offspeed stuff nearly as well as velo, which needs to be a part of the O’s scouting report heading into the series. Breaking stuff and offseason offerings that start out in the zone and end up out of it will be in high demand.

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