The Most Important Offseason Decision Facing the Padres After Playoff Elimination

The San Diego Padres' starting rotation was a known weakness going into the postseason.

The same can't be true going into 2027.

The four-inning tag team of Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray wasn't the most direct reason the Padres lost Game 4 of the National League Division Series to the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. The Padres collected only three hits and were victimized by an all-time home run robbery in the eighth inning by Brewers center fielder Garrett Mitchell.

Dig a bit deeper, however, and the disparity in the Padres' and Brewers' rotations loomed in the background of their season-ending loss.

The Padres only trailed 2-1 when they turned the ball over to their relievers in the fifth inning — on this day, Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, Jason Adam and Mason Miller — before Joe Musgrove took over in the eighth inning to mop up the loss.

Brewers manager Pat Murphy didn't have to pull out all the stops. He had his ace, Jacob Misiorowski, in reserve for a potential Game 5 on Friday in Milwaukee. The hardest-throwing starting pitcher of the Statcast era (if not ever) hadn't thrown a pitch since Game 1 of the series on Saturday.

Murphy used former Padres prospect Robert Gasser and middle reliever extraordinaire Aaron Ashby for the first seven innings, followed by a setup man (Abner Uribe) and closer (Trevor Megill) for one inning apiece.

One of those pitching plans is sustainable enough to win four postseason rounds. The other is not.

If the Padres want to take the next step in the postseason, the fix is obvious. They need more quality starting pitchers who can offer more length — including one or two who can transition to the bullpen in a best-of-three or best-of-five playoff series.

With all due respect to Buehler and Ray, it's not exactly a strong endorsement that Stammen let his starters take down only 15 of the 34.2 innings the Padres pitched in the series (excluding the innings Ray and Michael King pitched as relievers).

With better personnel, the Padres can flip that stat. Here's a quick look at their 2026 starting pitchers' status:

• Michael King: holds a $28 million player option for next season, which he will be expected to decline

• Nick Pivetta: the Padres will likely exercise his $14 million club option for 2027

• Lucas Giolito, Griffin Canning: mutual options for 2027; both are likely to be declined

• Robbie Ray, Walker Buehler, Casey Mize: free agents

• Joe Musgrove: under contract

• Randy Vasquez, JP Sears: team control

The Padres' most important offseason decisions revolve around how to fashion a more competitive rotation from these parts. The answer isn't obvious.

Buehler, for example, used the 2026 season to demonstrate his value as a mid-rotation innings eater. There's a world in which he re-signs. Even if he isn't expected to start a 2027 postseason game, he could play a large role in helping the Padres get there.

Mize and Ray are likely to command salaries commensurate with the front-of-the-rotation pitchers they were before they arrived in San Diego via trades in free agency. Neither is the answer for a rotation that needs regular contributions from pitchers younger than 30 — something they rarely got in 2026.

King is the big fish, and will be difficult to replace if he signs elsewhere. The rotation consists of Pivetta, Musgrove, Vasquez and Sears without him. Even with King, that's not enough.

Bringing Buehler back could help. Perhaps Giolito could too. A more intriguing possibility: Trading for multiple starters (Nick Lodolo? Peter Lambert? Josiah Gray?) who are getting closer to free agency, possess some upside and might not fit into their current team's long-term plans. That might require the Padres part with Pivetta, and/or a catcher (Freddy Fermin or Luis Campusano).

Most of the offseason chatter in the free-agent market for starters will surround Tarik Skubal. The Los Angeles Dodgers' two-time Cy Young Award winner should command a contract of $300 million or more. He'll instantly give his next team a legitimate ace and No. 1 starter — exactly what the Padres need to keep pace with the Brewers and Dodgers in the National League.

Because of the looming lockout, we might not learn where Skubal signs for months. The Padres can make the offseason feel a little less long by signing him before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires Dec. 1. Don't hold your breath.

Regardless of when they do it, the Padres will need to begin next season with a starting rotation that commands more trust than the one that lost to Milwaukee. It could be the first big test of their new owners' financial resources.

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