Padres Free Agent Projected to Sign 6-Year, $174 Million Deal

Jul 9, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) stands on the mound after giving up a grand slam to Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (2) (not pictured) during the fifth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres are losing a ton of pitching this offseason, with big names flying out the door to test the free agency market.

One such name is Dylan Cease.

Cease has been with the Padres for the last two years, and each season has been completely different from the other. In 2024, Cease placed fourth in NL Cy Young voting while posting a 3.47 ERA through 189.1 innings pitched. He struck out 224 batters that year, falling just three strikeouts short of his career-high.

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In 2025, though, Cease wasn't as consistent and had issues with his control.

His ERA rose to 4.55 in 2025, and his walk rate increased from 8.5 percent to 9.8 percent, which ranks in the bottom 20 percent of MLB. The starter's season wasn't all bad, though, as he managed to maintain his extraordinarily high strikeout rate and led MLB in strikeouts per nine innings with 11.5.

The Athletic's Tim Britton believes the right-hander will land a huge deal in free agency, spanning six years for $174 million — similar to the deal Jon Lester received in 2015.

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"The Lester comparison isn’t crazy," wrote Britton. "Lester endured some prolonged rough stretches leading into his free agency, though he sequenced them better, entering the market off arguably his best season (and one year removed from being a World Series hero). Cease won’t get to that number (at least not accounting for inflation), but he’ll probably join a group of pitchers paid more for their stuff and peripherals than for their ERA — a cohort headlined by Zack Wheeler.

"Cease offers an intriguing mix of potential (thanks to two top-five Cy Young finishes) and durability; no one has made more starts than his 174 since 2020. In a market without a bona fide ace, that should work in his favor."

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Cease is, without a doubt, one of the better pitchers in the class, and is sure to be in high demand. Whether or not the Padres bring him back is uncertain, but they need to address their lack of starting pitching before the beginning of the season if they're to remain contenders.

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