1 Stat Paints Grim Outlook for Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber in Home Run Derby

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper don't quite match up to their peers in the Home Run Derby in one stat.

Aug 22, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) celebrates with left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) after hitting a two RBI home run during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Citizens Bank Park. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Philadelphia Phillies have been well represented at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game festivities being held at their home stadium of Citizens Bank Park.

In the MLB All-Star Futures Game, their No. 1 prospect, right-handed pitcher Gage Wood, started for the National League Team. Outfielder Brandon Marsh is going to be in the starting lineup for the NL All-Star Team on July 14.

Five of his teammates, first baseman Bryce Harper, designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, starting pitchers Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo and closer Jhoan Duran, are also on the roster. Zack Wheeler declined an invite after being passed over multiple times, and Sanchez will be the starter for the NL squad.

And before the All-Star Game gets going, the Phillies will have two representatives in the MLB Home Run Derby: Schwarber and Harper. However, one stat doesn’t foreshadow much success for the Philadelphia duo in front of the home fans.

Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber behind in Dinger Score

Apr 28, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) and first baseman Bryce Harper (3) celebrate after scoring against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Over at MLB.com, different Statcast metrics were put together to make the “Dinger Score” to help predict which players will have the most success in the event. Disappointingly, Schwarber and Harper are in the bottom half of this year’s field.

That says more about how deep the eight-man group is this year than the Phillies' tandem not being worthy competition. Adjusted exit velocity, bat speed, pulled air exit velocity, blast rate and home run exit velocity were all used to come up with a Dinger Score.

Schwarber has a very respectable 76, but that is good for only fifth in this field. Harper is even further down the list, coming in with a score of 49, which is below average and the second lowest; only Ben Rice of the New York Yankees is lower.

Atop the leaderboard, there is a tie between Kansas City Royals slugger Jac Caglianone and Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero, who both received a score of 90. Jordan Walker of the St. Louis Cardinals is also above average with an 86, while Munetaka Murakami of the Chicago White Sox received a 77.

While Schwarber and Harper may not have an advantage statistically, there are some edges they will have. The hometown crowd will certainly be behind them, giving them a boost emotionally throughout the contest.

Also, they have a ton of experience partaking in derbies. This will be the third time each of them is competing, with Harper defeating Schwarber in the finals in 2018, 19-18, while playing for the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs, respectively.

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