Phillies vs. Reds Monday Betting Preview - NL East leaders look for 4th straight win

MATCHUP NOTES

The Philadelphia Phillies (68-49) pulled off an impressive three-game road sweep of the Texas Rangers this past weekend in Arlington. Philadelphia opened up a 5.5-game lead over the reeling New York Mets atop the NL East standings.

The next stop for the Phillies on their 10-game road trip takes them to Great American Ballpark to battle the Cincinnati Reds (62-57). The opener of their three-game set begins on Monday at 6:10 p.m. ET.

The Phillies limited the Rangers to five runs in the three victories, as Zack Wheeler picked up his 10th victory on the season in the series finale.

Phils take the lead! pic.twitter.com/D4JK9aZrWX
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) August 10, 2025

The Reds captured the final two games of their four-game set in Pittsburgh, outlasting the Pirates on Sunday, 14-8. Cincinnati is right in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, sitting 1.5 games behind New York for the third playoff spot entering Monday's action.

PITCHING MATCHUP

Taijuan Walker (4-5, 3.53 ERA) is fresh off his best start of the season, tossing six scoreless innings in a 5-0 shutout of the Orioles last Tuesday.

The Philadelphia right-hander has yielded five runs in his past three trips to the mound, all solo home runs. He faces a Cincinnati offense that is tied for 21st in MLB in home runs with 117.

Walker's road ERA sits at 2.80, compared to 4.12 at Citizens Bank Park. Pitching under the lights has been issue for the veteran, as his ERA balloons to 4.15, while allowing 12 of his 14 home runs in night contests.

The Reds counter with southpaw Andrew Abbott (8-2, 2.34 ERA), who is pitching at an ace level this season. Abbott's ERA is second lowest in the National League among starters behind Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes (1.94).

Prior to the All-Star break, Abbott compiled an 8-1 mark with a 2.07 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, his numbers have dipped in his last four starts, posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.29 WHIP since pitching one scoreless inning in last month's All-Star game.

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY

The Phillies captured two of three matchups at Citizens Bank Park against the Reds in early July.

Cincinnati's lone victory came in the series opener in spite of Abbott lasting less than four innings. The Reds rallied from an early 3-0 deficit to score six unanswered runs to eventually hold off the Phillies, 9-6.

Abbott yielded nine hits and four runs, while receiving a no-decision. Cincinnati improved to 3-0 in Abbott's three career starts against Philadelphia.

The Phillies rebounded with a pair of wins in the final two games. Philadelphia topped Cincinnati, 5-1 in the second contest as Kyle Schwarber hit one three home runs for the Phillies.

In the finale, Wheeler tossed a complete game and second baseman Bryson Stott hit the go-ahead two-run shot in a 3-1 victory.

STRIKEOUT PROPS

Walker has struck out four batters or fewer in five consecutive starts since re-entering the rotation in July. Five of the last six opposing starting pitchers to face Cincinnati have racked up at least five strikeouts.

In six of his last nine starts, Abbott has finished Under his strikeout prop. The southpaw has struck out only four batters in his past two outings since posting seven K's against Tampa Bay on July 26.

FIRST FIVE INNING TRENDS

Abbott has stepped up in the first five innings this season, as Cincinnati is 13-4-3 in his 20 outings.

The Reds have not led through five innings in nine consecutive games, as the Pirates erased an early 4-0 deficit on Sunday to tie Cincinnati at 4-4 through five frames.

The Phillies own a 5-6-2 mark in Walker's 13 starts in the opening five innings, while the right-hander has led through five innings once in six road outings.

BETTING OUTLOOK

DraftKings has opened the Reds as a -126 favorite and the total at 9.5 runs on Monday.

In spite of Sunday's win, the Phillies have slumped to a 4-8 record in their last 12 games against left-handed starting pitchers.

Walker has improved after a career-worse season in 2024, but he still owns below average numbers in several key analytical categories.

BEST BET: Reds -126