NLDS Momentum Has Shifted in the Philadelphia Phillies' Favor

The Philadelphia Phillies' chances of advancing to the NLCS shot up dramatically on Tuesday after a Game 1 victory.

The Philadelphia Phillies didn't just win on Tuesday afternoon. They won the most important game of the NLDS, dramatically increasing their odds of winning the series.

After starting Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the NLWCS, manager Rob Thomson had no choice but to tap Ranger Suárez for Game 1 against the Braves. Suárez is a fine pitcher, but he's the number three starter for a reason, thus Atlanta had the clear advantage with their well-rested ace Max Fried taking the hill. 

To make things even harder for the Phillies, they were opening yet another series on the road, where they finished the regular season below .500 (40-41). They were particularly bad at Truist Park in Atlanta, winning only three of nine games, outscored 48-31.

So the Phillies were the underdogs in Game 1. They were always going to be the underdogs against the Braves, but never more so than in the series opener. Their best chance of taking the series was going to be by winning the middle three games – Wheeler's start in Game 2, followed by two contests at home in Games 3 and 4. Now, they no longer have to win all three of those matchups. They have earned themselves some breathing room.

If either Wheeler or Nola falters, it won't be the end of the world. The team has earned an extra game at home to fall back on. And even if Philadelphia only wins one of the next three games, they still won't be dead in the water. They will return to Atlanta for, presumably, another Suárez-Fried matchup.

On Tuesday morning, ZiPS projections had the Braves as the favorite, with a 57.5% chance of winning the series. But after a major upset, Atlanta's chances dropped to 34.9%. The Phillies' odds rose 65.1% – nearly twice as high. 

The NLDS is far from over, and it's not time for another champagne celebration quite yet. But Philadelphia took a major step forward in their quest for a World Series title, and the momentum behind them has never been greater.

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