Phillies Starting Pitcher Could Be In for Nasty Regression Based on One Glaring Stat

Regression is hitting hard for a Philadelphia Phillies pitcher with a shockingly low statistic.

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The Philadelphia Phillies have been able to take advantage of a recent New York Mets skid, starting to get some breathing room from their National League East rivals in the divisional race, leading by five games entering play on Aug. 14.

One of the reasons that the Phillies have been able to pull away is that they successfully addressed their most glaring needs ahead of the MLB trade deadline. They needed backend bullpen help, so they signed David Robertson, who joined the Big League club recently, and acquired Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins in a trade.

On the lookout for some outfield help, Philadelphia made a second deal with the Twins, acquiring center fielder Harrison Bader. Their NL East counterparts made some moves as well, also acquiring bullpen help and another outfielder.

But, the most glaring difference between the two is their starting pitching staffs. While the Mets’ rotation has faltered in recent weeks, the Phillies starters have continued thriving as the best unit in baseball.

Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez are legitimate NL Cy Young Award contenders. Jesus Luzardo has been good and Taijuan Walker has answered the call after a brutal 2024 campaign. Aaron Nola is working his way back from the injured list and Andrew Painter is waiting in the wings in Triple-A.

The only concern for Philadelphia’s rotation moving forward is Ranger Suarez, who is experiencing some harsh regression to the mean recently, a trend that could continue based on one glaring statistic.

Ranger Suarez has been struggling as of late for Phillies

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Over his last three starts, Suarez has been hit hard by the Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds, pitching to an 8.49 ERA across 11.2 innings. This has been a troubling trend for the lefty, whose ERA was 1.99 after a start on July 5 but now sits at 3.28 only six outings later.

What has led to such a drastic drop in performance? As shared by Pitch Profiler, Suarez has the worst proStuff+ in baseball this year with a 79, which is in the first percentile. 100 is average, insinuating that his strong performance early on could have been a mirage the whole time.

His Pitching+, Mix+ and Max+ are all below the league average as well. That could certainly be a sign of more rough roads ahead for the 2024 All-Star, who is under some pressure to perform as he heads into free agency after the year.

Suarez has never had great proStuff+ scores in his career, but his previous low in a single season was 82, set last year. Being under 80 is certainly a cause for concern, especially when attempting to predict how he will be in the coming weeks and postseason.

Likely only needing three starters in the playoffs, a move to the bullpen, where the Phillies could certainly use some left-handed help, could be in the cards. He has experience coming out of the bullpen and right now he may not be one of their three best options to start games.

If his proStuff+ score is an indication of things to come, preparations need to be made for Suarez to not be in their plans as a starting pitcher.