It's Do-or-Die for Pirates and Paul Skenes
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The trip to Miami will feel less like a destination and more like a reckoning for the Pittsburgh Pirates this week. As the team touches down in South Florida, the weight of the season rests squarely on the shoulders of their ace, Paul Skenes.
Today's series opener against the Miami Marlins isn't just another game on the calendar; it's a critical juncture that could define the Pirates' season. For the reigning National League Cy Young winner, it's a chance to halt a personal skid. For the Pirates, it's do-or-die.
Skenes' recent performances have been uncharacteristically human. Over his last three starts, the numbers paint a stark picture: an 0-2 record and an 8.16 ERA. His struggles extend further back, with a 5.20 ERA in his last 15 starts, a baffling stretch during which the Pirates have gone just 3-12 when he takes the mound.
Skenes in July
The month of July was particularly brutal, as he posted a 6.25 ERA over six starts, including an outing against the Phillies where he allowed seven earned runs in just four innings—the worst start of his young career. There was a three-game stretch in mid-July where the Pirates won three straight Skenes starts, but those were surrounded by three other starts where he allowed at least five earned runs.
While his strikeout rate remains high, suggesting the pure stuff is still there, several underlying issues have emerged. His fastball velocity, a defining characteristic, has dipped to an average of 97 mph this season, down from 98.2 mph the year prior. He has yet to throw a single 100-mph pitch this season, a stark contrast to the 100 he threw last year.
More concerningly, his control has faltered; his walk rate has climbed to 3.2 per nine innings over his last 12 starts, a significant jump from the minuscule 1.7 mark he posted in his first 11 starts of the year. Last Wednesday, he walked four batters in just five innings, uncharacteristic for a pitcher of his caliber. These struggles have turned the Pirates' ace, last season a near-automatic quality start, into a question mark for much of this season.
Shrinking Postseason Odds
This individual slump has had a cascading effect on a team already in a precarious position. After dropping a weekend series to the New York Mets, the Pirates (58-62) have lost six straight series, a disastrous streak that has seen them plummet in the wild-card race. They have lost 14 of their last 20 games and, heading into this crucial series, find themselves 5.5 games back of the final National League Wild Card spot, with five teams to leapfrog.
The postseason odds have cratered accordingly; Fangraphs gave the Pirates a 47.6% chance of making the playoffs just a few weeks ago, but that number has since collapsed to 7.7%. ESPN's projections are similarly bleak, giving Pittsburgh just a 9.0% chance to reach October. The numbers are clear: while the Pirates are technically still in contention, their margin for error has vanished.
A series loss in Miami would only compound the growing lack of confidence. The Marlins (60-59) are a direct competitor in the wild-card chase, and losing ground to them while also failing to gain on other teams ahead would be a devastating blow.
With each passing loss, the statistical improbability of a comeback grows, as the Pirates would need an almost perfect run of baseball while relying on multiple teams ahead of them to falter.
As manager Don Kelly noted after a recent loss, "Frustrating loss... We’ve got to find a way to bounce back... and have a big series coming up in Miami".
However, the opposite is also true. A vintage Skenes start—commanding, efficient, and overpowering—would do more than just secure one win. It would be an elixir for a team desperate for a spark. A strong outing from their ace on the road would remind the clubhouse of their potential and restore the belief that they can compete with anyone.
A series win in Miami, gaining crucial head-to-head ground against the Marlins, would be the first step in reversing the narrative and proving the projections wrong. The Pirates are not mathematically eliminated, and a sweep would be disastrous but not fatal. But the time for "what ifs" is over. For Paul Skenes and the Pirates, this is the moment. It's do or die.
Key Stats
- Sea Legs on the Mound: 5.29 ERA for Pirates pitching staff is 26th in MLB over last seven days
- Making Waves at the Dish: .343 OBP for Marlins hitters is 6th in MLB over last seven days
- The Pirates and Marlins have met a total of 238 times. The Pirates lead the series 128-110.
Probable Pitchers & Matchups
Game 1: August 11, 6:40 PM at loanDepot Park
- PIT: RHP Paul Skenes (9-10, 3.96 ERA, 162 K)
- MIA: RHP Eury Perez (5-9, 3.61 ERA, 121 K)
- Key Battle: Skenes vs Marlins OF Heriberto Hernandez (Hernandez was 1-3 with 1 HR in first career matchup against Skenes in June)
Game 2: August 12, 6:40 PM at loanDepot Park
- PIT: TBD
- MIA: RHP Janson Junk (5-7, 4.63 ERA, 62 K)
- Key Battle: Junk vs Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe (First career matchup)
Game 3: August 13, 1:10 PM at loanDepot Park
- PIT: RHP Braxton Ashcraft (11-5, 4.08 ERA, 145 K)
- MIA: RHP Tyler Phillips (3-5, 3.47 ERA, 70 K)
- Key Battle: Phillips vs Pirates 1B Spencer Horwitz (1-for-2, 1 2B in first career matchup against Phillips in June)
Players to Watch
- SP Paul Skenes (PIT): 0-2, 8.16 ERA over last three starts
- OF Jake Mangum (PIT): .318/.385/.519, 1 HR, 3 2B, 3 RBI over last seven days
- 1B Kyle Stowers (MIA): .364/.440/.500, 8 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI over last seven days
- SP Eury Perez (MIA): 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 9 K in last start against Atlanta
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Ethan Merrill is from Grand Rapids, MI, and brings with him a diverse background of experiences. After graduating from Michigan State University with a degree in journalism, he worked with the Arizona Diamondbacks for three seasons before settling in the Pittsburgh area in 2020. With a passion for sports and a growing connection to his community, Ethan brings a fresh perspective to covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.