Projecting the Pirates' Future Starting Pitching Rotation
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Last week, Major League Baseball provided national television coverage of Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes' start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. This week, two different Pirates pitching prospects starts were featured as the "Minor League Baseball TV Game of the Day".
On Thursday, right-handed flamethrower Bubba Chandler, the number seven ranked prospect in all of baseball according to MLB Pipeline, toed the rubber for Triple-A Indianapolis in his sixth start of the season.He struck out nine hitters in only five innings pitched, continuing his ascendant rise and dominance of Triple-A batters.
Then, on Saturday, crafty left-hander Hunter Barco will take the mound for Double-A Altoona, looking to extend his 20.1 IP scoreless streak to start the season. Barco has emerged as another prospect that projects into Pittsburgh's rotation, especially with him being left-handed. Skenes spoke highly of Barco during Spring Training, and his performance thus far has proved the Pirates ace right.
More top prospects in the @MiLB Free Game of the Day slate? Yes, please!
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 28, 2025
🔹 Caglianone vs. Wetherholt
🔹 Painter, Chandler bump days
🔹 Eldridge returning to form
Complete schedule: https://t.co/jIW8WWE8rV pic.twitter.com/5rAub9Kypd
News also came out this week that starting pitcher Jared Jones, injured during Spring Training with elbow discomfort, will resume throwing activities this week. Jones, 23, emerged as a worthy sidekick to Skenes last season, striking out 132 hitters in 121.2 innings pitched.
One month into a season riddled with controversy and uncertainty, one thing is certain for Pirates fans — they have a stable of young arms that could eventually emerge as the best starting pitching rotation in baseball. It's not hard to envision this, given the plethora of talented, young pitchers that are spread amongst the Pirates minor league system.
Chandler should get the call-up to the big leagues before summer kicks in. Barco, at Double-A, will soon force the Pirates hand in promoting him to Triple-A. His promotion timeline depends on his performance at that level, but it is completely feasible we see Barco at PNC Park this season. Conservatively, this could be the rotation that the Pirates put together for Spring Training 2026. If Chandler and Barco's current trends both hold, it's possible we could see this potentially devastating rotation combination before the season ends.
1. Paul Skenes
There's no doubt who the 2026 Opening Day starter will be, barring injury. Skenes has followed up his historical rookie campaign with a solid start to the season. His ERA (2.74) is still a little bloated from an April 8 start against the St. Louis Cardinals where he allowed five earned runs for the first time in his pitching career. That type of consistent dominance is exactly why Skenes has emerged as one of the biggest names in the sport.
Even after another shaky start against the Cubs this week, Skenes still holds a WHIP of .91 for the season. Through 29 career starts, Skenes had the lowest career ERA (2.06) of any starting pitcher to make at least 20 starts in the live ball era. His ERA has since raised to 2.15, but that still places him in the upper echelon of starts to a pitching career. Pirates fans should cherish any time that Skenes takes the mound, because they may never see a pitcher like him again.
2. Bubba Chandler
Chandler, ranked as the Pirates’ No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline, has been nearly unhittable in his first six Triple-A starts, posting a 1.42 ERA, 0.67 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in 25.1 innings. His command (just seven walks all season) and ability to maintain elite velocity (100 MPH fastball that tops at 102 MPH) deep into starts at the Triple-A level proves that Chandler may be ready to test his stuff against Major League hitters.
The right-hander projects as another ace-type pitcher in the Pirates rotation. It's possible that Skenes and Chandler could become the best starting pitching duo in baseball. Chandler's name was being floated by writers and analysts as a possible rookie of the year candidate, even before his dominant start to his season.
Last month, Pirates General Manager Ben Cherington was asked about Chandler's timeline for a promotion. Cherington insured that they will be careful with Chandler's workload, steadily increasing his pitch count until they feel he is ready to make the leap to the big leagues. It appears as if that leap may not be far off.
3. Jared Jones
Jones, a second round draft pick in 2020, broke onto the MLB scene in a big way last season during his rookie year. He posted a 3.56 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 91 innings pitched during the first half of the season. Those numbers were not nearly as strong in the second half, but Jones never quite looked the same after a lat strain injury.
The right-hander, whose fastball averaged 97.3 MPH in 2024, is another hard-throwing starter who regularly hits 100 MPH. Jones' slider is an effective off-speed pitch, with sharp, late movement.
Jones is working on developing more pitches for his arsenal, as he essentially worked with a two-pitch mix last season. Expect Jones to work in more curveballs, changeups and sinkers when he returns to the mound this season.
There was initially speculation that Jones may need Tommy John surgery, given the location of his elbow discomfort. That notion was dispelled earlier this week, but his elbow's health is still something to keep an eye on this season and beyond.
4. Hunter Barco
When Barco does get promoted full-time to the big leagues, I would expect him to eventually slot in the middle of the rotation. This will break up all the right-handed pitchers, giving the Pirates more chances to throw opposing teams off balance. Barco, following a barrage of right-handed flamethrowers, would be an ideal change of pace.
On Sunday, the left-handed Barco delivered three shutout innings, allowing just one hit while striking out eight batters. Barco struck out all but one batter in his nine-out start. The southpaw needed only 47 pitches (33 strikes) to carve through the Chesapeake Bay Sox lineup, maintaining his pristine 0.00 ERA. Barco’s rise is particularly impressive given his recent injury history. The University of Florida standout was considered a potential first-round talent before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2022, which sidelined him for over a year.
The Pirates took a chance on him in the second round of the 2022 draft, and he has rewarded their patience with steady progression. After posting a 3.27 ERA in 16 starts for High-A Greensboro last season, Barco has taken another leap forward this year, displaying improved command and a devastating slider-changeup combo to complement his low-to-mid-90s fastball. He has also shown no setbacks from the stress fracture in his leg that ended his 2024 season prematurely.
Barco’s early dominance has put him on the radar for a potential 2025 MLB debut — especially if he maintains this level of performance.
5. Mitch Keller
I know — It's a bit odd to see a pitcher who started two consecutive Opening Days down at the fifth spot in the rotation. But that's no slight to Keller and his pitching ability. Rather, it's an indication of just how many talented young pitchers the Pirates possess. As previously mentioned, Keller is probably more like a 3-4 starter in the fifth spot because of Barco's left-handedness.
Keller had 210 strikeouts in 2023, and has generally been good for about a strikeout per inning throughout his career (8.7 K/9). He's been such a mainstay in the Pirates rotation since he was called up in 2019 that it's sometimes easy to forget he's only 29 years old.
The veteran right-hander will be critical to the success of the young Bucs. His mentorship and experience will still keep him as a key cog in the rotation. He has been the model of consistency for the Pirates in a rebuild period. Even as Keller moves down in the rotation, expect him to continue to pitch deep into games and give his team a chance to win every time he's on the mound.
Ethan Merrill is from Grand Rapids, MI, and brings with him a diverse background of experiences. After graduating from Michigan State University with a degree in journalism, he worked with the Arizona Diamondbacks for three seasons before settling in the Pittsburgh area in 2020. With a passion for sports and a growing connection to his community, Ethan brings a fresh perspective to covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.