2 Reasons Why Rays’ Junior Caminero Is Predicted Not To Make MLB History
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The Tampa Bay Rays have an incredibly special player as the face of their franchise, with third baseman Junior Caminero.
It wasn’t too long ago that he was viewed as one of the best prospects in the sport. A cameo was made in 2023 for his Big League debut, and after the MLB trade deadline in 2024, he was promoted to the Major Leagues for good.
2025 was his first full year in the MLB, and he announced his presence with authority. Caminero earned a spot on the American League All-Star Team, hitting 45 home runs, the second most for a player during his age-21 season, just behind the 47 that Eddie Matthew hit with the Milwaukee Braves in 1953.
The most for a player during their age-22 campaign is 48 by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2021 with the Toronto Blue Jays. Can Caminero reach that number, while also becoming the youngest player to reach the 50-home run plateau?
Will Junior Caminero make home run history this season?
David Schoenfield of ESPN recently shared verdicts on whether some incredible statistical feats could be reached during the 2025 campaign. He doesn’t believe the Tampa Bay star will reach those marks for two seasons: his propensity to chase outside the zone and the team’s move back to Tropicana Field.
“My only hesitation here is that Caminero is still prone to chasing out of the strike zone. Out of 146 qualified hitters, he ranked 116th in chase rate,” he wrote.
Opponents now have more tape to use when game planning against him. Given the lack of established producers in the Rays’ lineup around him, will opposing pitchers work outside of the zone even more, putting the onus on his teammates to perform?
That could lead to a drop in production if Caminero starts to chase a little more, wanting to put up numbers for his team. The change in home venues is also worth keeping an eye on.
JUNIOR CAMINERO SOLO HOME RUN
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 16, 2026
Team Dominican Republic scores first! #WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/zQO1Lf1Vo3
The slugging third baseman hit .313 at Steinbrenner Field in 2025 and only .218 on the road. But his power numbers were pretty similar, with 23 home runs on the road and 22 at home.
While Schoenfield doesn’t believe that history will be made, betting against Caminero is also a dangerous proposition. He has shown improvements in key areas, such as his launch angle, pull percentage and fewer swing-and-misses.
Couple that with his insane swing speed, which is in the 100th percentile in the MLB, and the Rays star has the tools and skills to make history.
Schoenfield added that he believes Caminero will eventually reach the 50-home-run plateau, along with Athletics star Nick Kurtz, but that will be further down the road in his career.
Kenneth Teape is an alumnus of SUNY Old Westbury and graduated in 2013 with an Honors Degree in Media Communications with a focus on print journalism. During his time at Old Westbury, he worked for the school newspaper and several online publications, such as Knicks Now, the official website of the New York Knicks, and a self-made website with fellow students, Gotham City Sports News. Kenneth has also been a site expert at Empire Writes Back, Musket Fire, and Lake Show Life within the FanSided Network. He was a contributor to HoopsHabit, with work featured on Bleacher Report and Yardbarker. Previously, he is a reporter for both NBA Analysis Network and NFL Analysis Network, as well as a writer and editor for Packers Coverage. You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @teapester725, or reach him via email at teapester725@gmail.com.