Junior Caminero Will Make or Break Rays Because of One Statistic
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The Tampa Bay Rays are going to have some new faces in their lineup for the 2026 season.
Gone is second baseman Brendan Lowe, part of a trade package with outfielder Jake Mangum and right-handed pitcher Mason Montgomery to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Fellow outfielder Christopher Morel was non-tendered earlier in the offseason and Josh Lowe was traded to the Los Angeles Angels.
That is a lot of offensive firepower on the move from a team that was in search of some offensive production for their lineup. Losing their All-Star second baseman, one of only four players who performed at an above-average level in 2025, is a massive blow.
Helping replace the production of those departed will be Gavix Lux, Cedric Mullins and Justyn-Henry Malloy, who were all acquired via trade, free agency or waivers this winter.
Junior Caminero is key to Rays success next season
It would be nice for some of the other players to step up their production who are holdovers from last year, such as Taylor Walls, Chandler Simpson and Carson Williams. However, a lot of pressure is going to fall on their emerging star, Junior Caminero.
In his first full season in the Major Leagues, he showcased the immense potential that made him one of the top prospects in the sport. He launched 45 home runs, the second most in MLB history from someone who was 21 years of age or younger, behind 47 from Eddie Matthews in 1953.
Hitting that many home runs certainly is an impressive feat. However, there is another level for Caminero to reach, which is why his power numbers were rightfully highlighted by David Schoenfield of ESPN as a make-or-break stat for the Rays.
He swings hard, with his 78.5 mph swing speed being in the 100th percentile, which is historically an indication of a player who projects well at the plate. His contact rate is excellent, he doesn’t strike out a ton, and his whiff rate is just under league average at 24.7% in the 47th percentile.
However, his numbers could see a nice spike if he can hone in when he swings. His chase rate of 32.2% is in the 22nd percentile, and he is prone to hitting the ball into the ground.
Caminero hit into an MLB-high 31 double plays in 2025, and his ground ball rate of 46.7%, while an improvement from previously in his career, is still well above the league average of 41.9%. His fly ball rate of 25.8% is also below the average of 26.4%.
If he can cut down on chasing pitches outside of the zone and continue having his ground ball and fly ball rates head in the right direction, his numbers will improve across the board. It is hard to imagine, but a 45-home run season could be the floor for the powerful third baseman moving forward as long as he is healthy.
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Kenneth Teape is an alumnus of SUNY Old Westbury and graduated in 2013 with an Honors Degree in Media Communications with a focus on print journalism. During his time at Old Westbury, he worked for the school newspaper and several online publications, such as Knicks Now, the official website of the New York Knicks, and a self-made website with fellow students, Gotham City Sports News. Kenneth has also been a site expert at Empire Writes Back, Musket Fire, and Lake Show Life within the FanSided Network. He was a contributor to HoopsHabit, with work featured on Bleacher Report and Yardbarker. Previously, he is a reporter for both NBA Analysis Network and NFL Analysis Network, as well as a writer and editor for Packers Coverage. You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @teapester725, or reach him via email at teapester725@gmail.com.