Rays Looking To Get Back on Track Against Twins After Two Series Losses
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The momentum spurred by two straight series sweeps was cooled in the Tampa Bay Rays' sampler of a revamped NL Central. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, two teams marked by a history of coming up short against their divisional counterparts, flexed their muscles against Tampa Bay with series wins apiece.
Bats have started to cool off or continue to slide for the Rays. Chandler Simpson’s impeccable contact and speed can’t do enough to maintain an unsustainably high BABIP. Cedric Mullins hit the winning homer in Pittsburgh, but is digging himself deeper into the worst career start of his season.
Taylor Walls continues to be an offensive black hole, while Jake Fraley has not done much to endear himself as an upgrade over Josh Lowe. In short, the offensive woes of last year have not gone away. The focal point of the Rays' offseason was all about renovating an outfield that was among the worst in baseball.
They have replaced the slumping names of last year with more or less the same type of low offensive ceiling potential names. It’s unlikely much offensive improvement will come from within, and some key minor leaguers are sure to be on the radar for a struggling Tampa Bay lineup.
Rays looking to keep up winning ways against Twins
After a worrisome opening couple of weeks, Jacob Melton has reentered the conversation as a solution for a slumping outfield. His bat has picked back up since the slow start to the tune of a .321 batting average with 5 doubles and eight stolen bases in eight games for Triple-A Durham.
It’s not the most extensive sample size, but it’s a tick in the right direction for Melton. While the strikeouts continue to be an issue, Melton’s exit velocities rank in the 96th percentile for Triple-A baseball at 112.7 mph, while also possessing one of the top sprint speeds. That package of top-tier hard hit rates and speed to use in the field and on the base paths should start to pile the pressure on a below-replacement-level Jake Fraley.
Dom Keegan is also warranting attention. Power has always been his calling card, and his start to the minor league season is putting it on display with four home runs and a .380 on-base percentage. Like Melton, his swing and miss issues are no joke.
There are huge holes in his zone that will get exploited at the big leagues. At this point, the Rays might be willing to take it. Nick Fortes certainly provides stability with his defense and a contact-oriented approach, but the dearth of extra-base hits from the position drags the unit’s potential down.
In the short term, though, the Rays will take on the Twins for the second time this season, this time in the temperature-controlled dome and not the frigid Minneapolis conditions. Minnesota has raised eyebrows this year by playing just fine.
It speaks to how low the expectations were around the squad going into the year. Remnants of playoff squads of years past, journeymen plugging roster holes, and prospects seizing opportunity make up this strangely assorted quasi-rebuilder.
The biggest sting has been how incredible Taj Bradley has pitched. Once the golden goose of the Rays system, his struggles in Tampa Bay are now Minnesota’s gain. If giving them Joe Ryan wasn’t enough of a lesson to the Rays front office, maybe Bradley will convince the team to stop trading pitching to Minnesota.
Game 1: Taj Bradley vs. Drew Rasmussen
For the first time since being traded, Taj Bradley will return to St. Pete. The saga of Bradley in Tampa Bay is storied, filled with lofty expectations and, most notably, frustrations. During his meteoric rise as a prospect in the Rays’ system, it seemed as if Bradley was destined to stake his claim as a rotation stalwart for years.
There was simply no challenge against the blistering fastball and cutter he threw that sat hitters down at a ridiculous clip in 2021 and 2022. MLB Pipeline ranked him as a top 20 prospect going into the 2023 season, as he had proven a mastery of the minors with nowhere left to go but the majors.
That lengthy resume of success placed pressure on him, and he was expected to thrive immediately. The results were always mixed. Inconsistency was central to his struggles as he bordered between electric in some games to flat-out meltdowns in other outings. A quote from him about his failure to read scouting reports before games with the Rays put those ups and downs in perspective, as it was always clear that he lacked a solid game plan each outing.
Tampa Bay's patience wore thin, and he ended up in Minnesota during the 2025 trade for late-inning reliever Griffin Jax. There were sighs of relief from some who had tired of the constant ups and downs, yet others were frustrated at cutting bait on an arm with objectively electric stuff on his given day.
At 25 years old in his fourth big league season, he has found the winning formula. That devastating fastball remains, but now with a more used split-finger fastball that has proved to be untouchable. This newfound consistency has led him to an incredible start as a top ten pitcher in the game, and this start in Tampa Bay is likely circled on his calendar as one he’s looking to dominate.
The Rays have an ace of their own with Drew Rasmussen. The stabilizing force in the rotation, Rasmussen, will look to shake off a drab performance in Pittsburgh. Everything about his numbers and metrics supports the fact that he is the best pitcher on the Rays’ staff right now.
The refinement of his control with improvement, and trust in his cutter are two of the newest developments around his game. Playing at the top of his game right now, Rasmussen looks to keep the positive momentum going around his ever-growing breakout status.
An interesting story surfacing in a sports media market that scarcely gets the attention it deserves is Austin Martin. At 27 years old and well past the once exciting prospect label he brandished, Martin is putting up absurd stats and going unnoticed.
The current Twins hitting WAR leader is swinging the bat less than anyone in the game and playing the best baseball of his life. Excellent bat control and being extremely picky have always been traits of Martin's approach, but it's been turned up to ten this season.
Obviously, a .492 on-base percentage and a near 24 percent walk rate will stabilize, but it's fun to see the one-time Vanderbilt star finding success by having the most scrutinizing eye in baseball.
Game 2: Bailey Ober vs. Shane McClanahan
Through five starts, there’s nothing different about the way Bailey Ober has pitched. In his metronomic fashion, Ober throws a changeup interchangeably with a fastball in the zone to induce soft contact.
The massive extension he gets from his 6-foot-9 frame certainly helps the shape and angle the pitches get, seeing that they hardly clock in the high 90s. He is durable, can pitch length, and has the tools to get major league hitters to not get their best swings off.
Continuing the weekly check-in around Shane McClanahan, he is progressing just fine. There’s not much more to say about him despite some rough-around-the-edges starts in Pittsburgh and Chicago that don’t reflect how he’s throwing. The fastball touched 97 and higher seven times in his most recent outing, and there’s reason to believe his ace-level ceiling is still within reach.
This feels like a good point in the year to check in on the Rays' relief staff, which has been a real mixed bag. Though they rank in the bottom five of team relief corps, much of that is dragged down by Jax and the blow-ups he allowed at the start of the year. But even with his numbers removed, there haven’t been too many standouts.
To put it plainly, this season’s collection of late-inning arms looks to be comfortably middle of the pack. Bryan Baker, Kevin Kelly, and Ian Seymour have had to do a lot of heavy lifting while Garrett Cleavinger and Edwin Uceta are sidelined. It’s been apparent in the quality drop-off, as their stuff doesn’t reach the same echelon as the more elite Rays relievers.
And if you’re looking for reinforcements, they’re sparse on those, too. Cam Booser is first in line to get lefty specialist reps, while Evan Reifert and Alex Cook possess the hard raw stuff to effectively handle high leverage situations. Beyond that, though, this area on the Rays’ roster doesn’t look great. What has usually been a strength for an organization historically elite at identifying bullpen arms has dried up this season.
Game 3: Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Jesse Scholtens
Last time out against Tampa Bay, Simeon Woods Richardson took care of business. Against every other team he’s faced, the results have been in line with his past stats.
He’s simply a very mediocre pitcher who has hit his ceiling at only 25 years old. He’ll mix in 3 pitches and throw his fastball the most, which comes in around a manageable 92 mph.
The only thing he really uses to his advantage is his bigger frame and extension, which generates tough looks to his pitches. Besides that, the Rays should see this start as an opportunity to bash.
Someone to keep an eye on for Minnesota this season is Royce Lewis. A highly touted prospect with great numbers in the majors, Lewis was reactivated from the IL and returned to his third base duties. Here’s a name that the Twins front office should get a lot of calls on.
Premium defense with a strongly tested hit tool at the Big League level will fetch a decent return, and as a player on the verge of turning 27 years old, he’s an odd fit on a Twins team trying to start anew. With a sterling first half, there’s a chance Royce Lewis could be a centerpiece of the 2026 trade deadline.
Jesse Scholtens will get another try in the rotation. Even with a bleak track record in both the majors and minors, the Rays' brain trust has deemed him a first-in-line spot starter.
A 10-degree change in arm angle and a complete reliance on a sinker/sweeper have remade his game. He’s ranking among the best in controlling walks while also excelling at spinning his sweeper, which he’s throwing at the highest clip of his career. He’s certainly not the most exciting name, yet the first couple of starts have seen encouraging results in both control and stuff.
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Sam Hougham is an alumnus of UC Santa Barbara, who earned his degree in Communication. He is a passionate baseball writer and researcher who began his career at Diamond Digest, a platform for up-and-coming voices in baseball writing. Since then, he has launched his own website, The Daily Lineup Card, where he publishes long-form analytical pieces focused on scouting, drafting, and team analysis. A lifelong Tampa Bay Rays fan, Sam’s other sports interests include Aston Villa FC and the English Premier League, the NHL, and the NFL. You can follow him on X, @samuelhougham, or reach him via email at samhougham791@gmail.com.