The Single Biggest Reason to Believe in a Red Sox Turnaround

The Boston Red Sox may not be out of it in the American League yet after all.

Jun 19, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras (40) celebrates scoring in the sixth inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If you're a fan of the Boston Red Sox hoping that this club can really get back into the mix in the American League playoff race, don't give up hope just yet.

First and foremost, the Red Sox have the hottest starting rotation in the majors right now. Boston has logged 12 straight quality starts with the latest being from Ranger Suárez, who pitched six innings against the Washington Nationals on Monday and allowed just three runs while striking out eight batters. The Red Sox's rotation is on a historic run right now and it's why Boston has won five straight games heading into Tuesday night's showdown against Washington with Connelly Early set to take the mound.

The rotation has been getting its flowers over the last week or so — and rightfully so — but the 12 quality starts in a row isn't even the stat that should give Boston fans the most hope right now. Again, the Red Sox's rotation is on a historic run. At some point, the quality start streak will end. But what should make Red Sox fans most excited right now is the fact that Boston is one of just six teams in the American League right now with a positive run differential right now.

The Red Sox Can Turn This Thing Around

May 28, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy (17) sits in the dugout before a game against the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Boston is nine games under .500 right now, but the Red Sox have a run differential of +8. The New York Yankees are leading the American League at +97 followed by the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox tied at +24, the Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are tied at +8, and then the Detroit Tigers are the other team with a positive run differential in the American League at +1.

Now, of course, it doesn't guarantee that Boston will turn its season around. But the Red Sox have been unbelievably unlucky. How can a club be tied for the fourth-best run differential in the American League and yet be nine games below .500? It's shocking. The Red Sox are tied with the Mariners, but Seattle is 43-43. The Red Sox are in the middle of a series against the Nationals right now and they are 43-43, and yet their run differential is worse than Boston's at +2.

It's not a perfect science, but if the Red Sox can continue at this pace, wins will come. We're starting to see it right now with the Red Sox's five-game winning streak. But this team is not out of it.