Cincinnati Reds’ Dramatic Drop in Key Category Helps Explain Their Disappointing Season

The hits keep on coming...

Sep 26, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder (25) pitches to the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cincinnati Reds finished their 2026 season with a losing record and a last-place finish in the division. With a season like that, the team will likely rank near the bottom in several stats. The Reds' starting pitching has been among the worst at getting guys out with two strikes, and now they are near the bottom in another pitching stat.

The 2026 Cincinnati Reds Starters

Outside of Chase Burns, the Reds' starting pitching took major steps backward this year. As mentioned before, the starters are one of the staffs at getting guys out with two strikes, OPS with two strikes, and whiff percentage with two strikes. Logically, if you're one of the worst pitching staffs in those categories, you are probably going to give up some runs.

A stat put out by TJ Stats on X this week showed exactly how bad the starters were at giving up earned runs. The Cincinnati Reds were 28th of 30 teams in MLB in team starters' ERA. Only the Athletics and Rockies were worse as a starting pitching staff in earned run average.

Moreover, eight of the top 10 in starters' ERA were playoff teams. The Yankees, Dodgers, Brewers, Rays, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox, and Guardians were all top-10 staffs. Only the Tigers and Marlins were non-playoff teams in the top-10. Either way, the Reds had a bottom-3 starting staff, and that makes it really hard to win ballgames.

Huge Drop Off

Just a season ago, the Reds starters were much better. The starting staff was a top-10 group in MLB. The Reds got solid to excellent seasons out of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, and Nick Lodolo in 2025. Fast forward, all three of these guys were appreciably worse in 2026. The Reds starters are usually one of the strongest, if not the strongest, units on the roster.

In 2025, their starters' ERA was 3.85 for the season. That's more than a full earned run lower than what this team did in 2026. Of course, the injuries to Hunter Greene and Lodolo at the start of this year's campaign didn't help. Another problem that surfaced was the lack of depth. Brandon Williamson was only healthy for 11 games this year; Jose Franco spent most of the year in Triple-A; Chase Petty was converted to a relief pitcher, and Julian Aguiar was DFA'd and claimed by a division opponent. Just a rough year for Reds starters.

If the Reds are to be a competitive team in 2027, the starters are going to have to have a much better year than in 2026.

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