Kansas City Royals' Newest Relief Prospect Carlos Duran Could Be Up Faster than Expected
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As we head towards the final section of the season, the Kansas City Royals will look to expand their evaluation of the roster come September. When the rosters expand, the team will have plenty of options to see who can make an impact in their cup of coffee at the majors, and the Kris Bubic trade returnee, Carlos Duran, should be one of those players called up.
The hulking 6'7" flamethrowing righty was the returning part of the Kris Bubic trade to the Dodgers, and the move set the precedent for the guys the Royals want in the bullpen. High velocity, good stuff, and inconsistency throwing within the strike zone. Let's discuss what else Duran brings to the table.
Literally Steven Cruz 2.0, with some Twists
The Royals' bullpen has been one of the worst in the league, with few bright spots on it. One of those few bright spots has been Steven Cruz (specifically since the All-Star break). Cruz is the other 6'7" reliever who throws hard and has good stuff and he has put together an interesting season that shows the volatility of his skill set. He can strike everyone out, doesn't walk a ton of batters, but this year the long ball has hurt him for the first time in his career.
Duran has a very similar skill set, where he has high strikeout rates and the long ball hasn't hurt him a ton, but the walks are the issue (more on that later). Continuing the comparison, both have similar repertoires, as Duran throws a high-90s fastball, a slider, a sinker, and has mixed in a changeup this year. Cruz throws a high-90s fastball, a slider, and a cutter with both pitchers throwing the fastball and slider well over 70% of the time.
If we expand on their stuff, both have elite sliders, based on tjstuff+, with Cruz having a value of 115 and Duran having a value of 113. Both pitchers sport above-average tjstuff+ values, with Cruz at 105 and Duran at 102; the key difference is that Cruz's fastball ranks a lot higher than Duran's. This will be a trend for the Duran vs. Cruz comparison, where they have similar numbers, but Duran is slightly worse or a lot worse.
The Struggles of Duran's Profile
While Duran and Cruz are part of the same branch of relief pitchers, there are a lot of concerns with his profile currently. He walks way too many batters, with a walk rate of 13.9%, and that stems from his absurdly low zone% of 44.2. It hasn't affected him a ton as his stuff is that dominant in the minors, but once he is in the majors it will probably hurt him more often.
Another concern is that Duran's stuff isn't as good as Cruz's at the moment. Cruz's tjstuff+ values lie around league average to above league average for his three offerings, whereas for Duran, there is a lot more variance. We discussed both of their sliders being good and both fastballs being very different, but for Duran, the fastball is the concern as it is a key part of his arsenal. For Duran, the issue is that he doesn't get whiffs with it and he is around the zone with it as well.
Speaking of being around the zone, he has a strike percentage of 62.0, which is below league average, but that is helped by his high whiff rates overall. Looking at his zone rates for each pitch this season, he has one pitch with a zone rate hovering around 50%: his fastball. His current profile is a worse version of Cruz's at the moment, but that doesn't mean the potential isn't there. Another slight concern is the fact that his extension is slightly low for a guy who is 6'7", similar to this writer's concern with Cruz.
Another thing to discuss, however, is the switch of his pitch arsenal since joining the Omaha Storm Chasers.
Early Changes shown in Omaha, and his Changeup
In the Dodgers system this year, he was throwing his slider 43.3% of the time, 4-seam 31.5% of the time, sinker 19.5% of the time, and his changeup 5.7% of the time. Since coming over to Omaha, he has switched it over to throwing his sinker 32.4% of the time, his slider and 4-seam 29.7% of the time, and his changeup 8.1% of the time. With the changes, he has been in the zone more with his fastballs, but he is also generating more chase with this mix.
His slider specifically has been generating an 80% whiff rate while getting chased 57.1% of the time. Duran's sinker, his new primary pitch early in Omaha, has helped him get in the zone more often while also showing solid swing-and-miss rates. This is all in three innings of work, however, so the sample size is not enough to warrant it as a positive change quite yet.
Another discussion point with Duran is the fact that he has developed his changeup this year. In terms of tjstuff+, in 2025, Duran's changeup was valued at 93. This year, it is valued at 103. It is an interesting development for him as it gives him another plus offering despite it not being thrown a ton. This year, he has generated a 52.4% whiff rate with the changeup and is the pitch to keep an eye on if the fastballs don't further develop.
Conclusion
With September call-ups coming up, it shouldn't surprise many Royals fans to see Duran get the call to finish the year in the bullpen. He might be the second Steven Cruz at this moment in time, but there are some differences in the comparison. Either way, the Royals have two similar relievers who throw hard, have good stuff, and could be a part of the future for the Royals pen.
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Trey is no stranger to writing about the Royals as he has done it for 6 years now for various blogs (Kings of Kauffman, Inside The Royals, and Farm to Fountains). He is a graduate of Baker University with a degree in Mass Media with an emphasis in sports media. He enjoys watching and researching sports as well as gaming.
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