Can Shota Imanaga Become a Profitable Investment for the Tigers?
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Prone to allowing home runs has undoubtedly been the worst tendency the Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga has carried since debuting with the Chicago Cubs. He made his debut in 2024 at age 30. In his first three Major League seasons, Imanaga has allowed 93 home runs, the most by any pitcher over that span, and he is coming off a 2026 season in which the league produced a 16.1% home run rate per fly ball, the highest rate of his career.
This really is nothing new for Imanaga; he has always had to deal with these problems since he was pitching in the NPB.
In four of his six seasons with the Yokohama BayStars, Shota allowed an HR/FB rate above 10%. He has never been a great strikeout pitcher, so he often depends on controlling hard contact and inducing ground balls. When he controlled BABIP, his profile as a pitcher took an indisputable leap, given his strong arm and consistency throughout his professional career.
After a solid first year, in which he posted a 15-3 record with a 2.91 ERA, 3.72 FIP and a 6.21 SO/BB rate that led the league, Imanaga finished fourth among the finalists for Rookie of the Year and fifth in the Cy Young voting. His 3.0 bWAR dropped to 1.5 in a difficult second year. With the exception of his SO/BB rate, his standards have remained, but Imanaga finished 2026 with the highest number of home runs allowed in a season in his career, with a total of 35.
The good news, within the worst, is that much of his problem is well localized since 72% of the home runs have come against his fastball, 78% have been hit by right-handed batters and 70% have come with the bases empty.
Even so, the overall impact has been impressive, since 69% (131) of the 189 runs Imanaga has allowed in his career have scored via home runs. If he were not so vulnerable, in each of these three seasons in which he has allowed at least 27 home runs, his impact in the league would have been much greater, since he has averaged 195 innings per 162 games played and his career 3.92 xFIP remains quite good for a pitcher so prone to allowing the hard-hit balls that do the most damage.
Does Imanaga fit into Detroit’s rotation?
According to the Detroit Tigers' president of baseball operations, Scott Harris, one of the main priorities for now is finding arms that can add experience, power against both batter profiles and consistency to the bullpen. Right-hander Emilio Pagan, who has saved 57 games for the Cincinnati Reds over the last two seasons, has been Detroit’s first move this winter.
They are expected to be in the market for a closer, who could well be among two of the top names, Raisel Iglesias and David Bednar, who is waiting to decide whether he will accept the New York Yankees’ $23.15 million qualifying offer or decide to enter the open free-agent market.
That said, it is worth asking whether Harris and the Tigers still have plans to add another left-handed arm to the rotation —and it is reasonable to think they are not going to reveal it openly, since it is part of the market strategy— to seek a balance alongside Framber Valdez.
Recently, I wrote about the idea of seeing an interesting option in David Peterson, who could fit perfectly in the middle of the rotation and does not rank among the most expensive starters on the market. Imanaga is not far from that conversation either and, in general, has been a more consistent and durable pitcher than Peterson.
In 2026, one of Imanaga’s major improvements came with the adjustment he made to the command of his fastball, starting by somewhat reducing its usage from 48.7% in 2025 to 40.1% this year. In the end, he finished by allowing 17 home runs, which, although it remains a high number, was the lowest in a single season in his career and represents a recovery from the 24 he allowed in 2025. However, the big change was in the number of situations Imanaga resolved with his fastball, which helped him considerably improve his Run Value, from -10 to +6 this season.
That leap was driven mostly by the way Shota prepared his mix around the fastball, using his devastating changeup, which left the league with just a .198 xBA and resolved the highest percentage of his plate appearances (22.8%). The better his changeup worked, the more room the fastball had to surprise, which helped Imanaga raise his strikeout rate from 12.2 to 21.5 and generate many more whiffs (he raised his percentage from 15.9 to 20.1).
In the end, his +14 Run Value with the changeup placed Imanaga in the 99th percentile of the league, the best, without a doubt, among the free agents currently available on the market, combining a high 91st percentile in Chase%, 82nd in Whiff%, 95th in BB% and 67th in K%.
Now, what is clear is that he will have to back up his great changeup with a better mix of pitches, especially by trying to adjust his secondary pitches - the sweeper, sinker, and slider - since he dropped in Breakings from the 90th percentile in 2025 to just the 17th this year. To be honest, I don’t think he is a prospect to be dismissed for the Tigers, and I believe that if Imanaga manages to turn things around, a short-term investment could become one of the most profitable bets on the market for Detroit.
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Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.
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