Detroit Tigers' Current Playoff Odds Ahead of Series Finale vs. Athletics
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Don't look now, but the Detroit Tigers are playing some of the best baseball they've played since the first half of 2025. Sitting with the best run differential in the AL Central (+20), Detroit is inching closer to getting back into the division race and has made some ground in the AL Wild Card.
The Tigers seemed to be struggling after a dismal performance in May, finishing the month with a record of 6-22. However, when you exclude that one month, Detroit has been playing quite well. Since June 1, they have a record of 20-12 and have lost only once in July. The Tigers are now close behind their rivals in the standings.
Picking up another series victory, beating the Athletics in the first two games of the final home stand of the first half, the Tigers sit at a 42-50 record entering the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Framber Valdez, who has had his struggles, is tasked with helping Detroit earn a series sweep.
And while it's still very possible that back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal could get traded by the end of the month, though he urges the front office to be buyers rather than sellers, the Tigers could replicate that 2024 magic by flipping their best pitcher and still making a run at the playoffs.
Detroit Tigers Current Playoff Odds
Entering the series finale, the Detroit Tigers currently possess a 33.8% chance of making the playoffs, which is 0.6% behind the Minnesota Twins' current playoff odds, according to FanGraphs. Additionally, Detroit has a 19.7% chance of winning the AL Central and a 14.1% chance of becoming a Wild Card team.
Detroit had a 25.1% chance to make the playoffs and a 13.6% chance of winning the AL Central back on July 6.
In the AL Wild Card race, the Tigers are one of two teams with a positive run differential that don't currently have a playoff spot (the other is the Boston Red Sox). With the win on Wednesday and the Baltimore Orioles' four-game skid, Detroit has passed Baltimore in the Wild Card race.
There is still a lot of work to do if the Tigers want to be a playoff team. Should they trade away Skubal, there's still a world where this team can buy players to make a run at the playoffs, despite having the best pitcher in baseball. But that decision is based on how the rest of July plays out.
The trade deadline is set for August 3, and so long as those playoff odds continue to rise, it is bound to be one of the more interesting ones in a handful of years.
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Dominic Minchella is a 2024 Eastern Michigan University graduate with a BA in Communications, Media, and Theatre Arts and a Journalism minor. He covers Major League Baseball for On SI and spends his free time watching games and sharing his insights.