Why Framber Valdez's Curve Explains His Disappointing First Half With Tigers
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The first half of Framber Valdez's season with the Detroit Tigers has been disappointing. Not because he got hurt or because his arsenal suddenly stopped being effective. Simply put, the version of Valdez who spent years delivering some of the most reliable starts in baseball hasn't shown up often enough.
Detroit signed Valdez to give Tarik Skubal another frontline starter at the top of its rotation. Instead, the Tigers entered Thursday with a 42-50 record and were just 7-11 in games started by the left-hander, well short of the impact they expected when they signed him in free agency.
Injuries to Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Skubal and Justin Verlander only increased the pressure on Valdez. He stayed healthy. The problem was something else: he never sustained the level of performance that had long defined his consistency.
From 2022 through 2025, Valdez established himself as one of the most dependable starters in the majors. In Detroit, however, his performance has slipped to that of a league-average starter. Before Thursday's outing, he had produced just 1.0 WAR with a 4.29 ERA and a 4.30 FIP. What changed?
The answer starts with his curveball. For years, it was the pitch that separated Valdez from a good starter and made him one of the American League's most dominant left-handers. This season, it hasn't had the same impact.
In 2025, with Houston, Valdez threw his curveball 33.1% of the time. It generated a 43.7% whiff rate, produced strikeouts against 44.6% of the hitters who ended a plate appearance against it and held opponents to a .298 slugging percentage.
This season in Detroit, the picture looks very different. His curveball usage has dropped to 27.6%. Its whiff rate has fallen to 29.8%, its strikeout rate has declined to 28.6%, and opponents are slugging .382 against it.
Metric | 2025 (HOU) | 2026 (DET) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Uso% | 33.1% | 27.6% | -5.5 pp |
Whiff% | 43.7% | 29.8% | -13.9 pp |
K% | 44.6% | 28.6% | -16.0 pp |
SLG | .298 | .382 | .084 |
RV/100 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -0.9 |
The numbers all point to the same trend. The curveball still has movement, but it no longer controls plate appearances the way it once did. It generates fewer swings and misses, finishes off fewer hitters, and allows much more dangerous contact when batters put it in play. The pitch that carried Valdez's success for years is no longer creating the same separation.
Still, the curveball explains only part of the story. Its decline has triggered a chain reaction throughout the rest of Valdez's profile.
At his best, Valdez could survive even on days when his curveball wasn't at its sharpest. He generated ground balls at an elite rate, kept the ball in the park, and finished hitters once he got ahead in the count. In Detroit, all three strengths have regressed at the same time.
Year | K% | K-BB% | GB% | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 23.5% | 15.4% | 66.5% | 0.49 |
2023 | 24.8% | 17.7% | 54.2% | 0.86 |
2024 | 24.0% | 16.2% | 60.6% | 0.66 |
2025 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 58.6% | 0.70 |
2026 | 17.6% | 9.5% | 51.6% | 0.98 |
The drop in his ground-ball rate is especially concerning. Valdez never needed elite strikeout numbers because he consistently compensated by inducing weak contact. As that advantage has disappeared, every ball put in play has become more likely to do damage.
His strikeout rate has also fallen to its lowest point in five seasons, while his strikeout-to-walk differential has narrowed significantly. The result is a much less dominant pitcher with far less room for error than he had during his peak years.
The decline, however, didn't begin in Detroit. During the second half of the 2025 season with Houston, Valdez went 3-7 with a 5.20 ERA while allowing a 107 OPS+. What has happened with the Tigers isn't a sudden collapse. It's the continuation of a trend that had already started before he changed uniforms.
The issue becomes even more apparent once hitters get to two strikes.
Although his slider has improved — its whiff rate has climbed to 19.9% — it still accounts for less than five percent of his repertoire. The effect becomes clear when looking at how plate appearances end.
Year | OPS Allowed With Two Strikes |
|---|---|
2024 | .505 |
2025 | .513 |
2026 | .533 |
For much of his career, getting to two strikes meant Valdez controlled the at-bat. That is no longer the case. Hitters are surviving those counts more often and doing more damage in situations that once overwhelmingly favored the pitcher.
The diminished effectiveness of his curveball doesn't fully explain Valdez's disappointing season in Detroit. It does, however, explain why a pitcher whose identity was built on weak contact and winning the biggest moments now looks much more like a middle-of-the-rotation starter than the ace the Tigers believed they were signing.
Thursday's performance also offered a reason to believe the problem can still be fixed.
Against the Athletics, Valdez reminded everyone why Detroit viewed him as one of the anchors of its rotation. He worked seven innings, allowed one run and struck out nine in his best start of the season.
The difference wasn't velocity or movement. His sinker averaged 94.3 mph, while his curveball averaged 78.8 mph, both essentially in line with his season averages. What changed was his commitment to his best pitch.
Valdez threw 87 pitches and used his curveball 31% of the time, above his season average. The pitch generated 18 whiffs, his highest total of the year, including an outstanding 50% whiff rate after producing eight swings and misses on 16 swings. The Athletics went 0-for-13 with nine strikeouts in two-strike counts and did not record a hit or score a run against the curveball.
The adjustment became even more noticeable the third time through the lineup. During that stretch, Valdez threw his curveball 55% of the time, allowing him to regain control of at-bats and finish hitters with authority.
One dominant outing doesn't erase a disappointing first half or guarantee that Valdez has rediscovered his best form. In fact, despite posting his highest Game Score of the season (76, using Bill James' formula), he still hasn't recorded three consecutive quality starts all year. Even so, Thursday reinforced the central conclusion of this analysis: Valdez doesn't need to reinvent himself.
He needs to build his arsenal around the curveball that defined his career. For the first time in a long while, that version of Framber Valdez showed up again.
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Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.
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