Why the Twins’ Riskiest Draft Pick Could Be Worth the Gamble

Carson Tinney comes with real swing-and-miss questions, but his rare power gives Minnesota a bat worth betting on.

Texas Longhorns catcher Carson Tinney slides into third base against the Georgia Bulldogs | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Minnesota Twins did not take the safest player on the board when they selected Carson Tinney; that risk is what makes the pick interesting.

After taking Vahn Lackey with the No. 3 pick in the 2026 MLB draft, Minnesota doubled down at catcher by grabbing Tinney at No. 43. Lackey offers a more polished profile with a clearer defensive path, while Tinney brings a much riskier offensive skill set. His upside is easy to see, but so are the questions that could decide whether the pick will pay off.

Tinney’s Risk Is About Contact, Not Approach

Carson Tinney hits a single against the Georgia Bulldogs | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tinney’s best tool is easy to identify. The Texas catcher has some of the best raw power in the class, and his production backed it up. He hit .326/.483/.688 with 22 home runs, 58 RBI and 55 walks in 61 games for Texas. That level of offensive output is rare from any position player, but it stands out even more behind the plate.

The risk is not whether Tinney has enough power. It is whether he will make enough contact for that power to matter against professional pitching. Big swings often come with swing-and-miss, and Tinney will be tested by better velocity, sharper breaking balls and pitchers that will have a scouting report and know what areas of the zone to stay away from. If he can keep the strikeouts manageable while continuing to draw walks, the upside becomes much easier to believe in.

Power only plays if pitchers have to throw strikes. Tinney has the strength to punish mistakes, but his development will depend on whether he can keep forcing those mistakes at the next level. Professional arms will try to expand the zone, change speeds and make him chase pitches he cannot drive. If Tinney keeps showing enough patience to make pitchers come to him, his raw power has a much better chance to translate.

The defensive question also exists. If Tinney sticks at catcher, his power becomes much more valuable. If he eventually moves to first base or corner outfield, the offensive bar becomes higher due to the defensive burden decreasing.

Overall, the risks with drafting a player with Tinney's profile are high, but so is the payoff. If the contact skills improve, the plate discipline holds and he remains playable behind the plate, Tinney has the kind of raw power that could eventually grow into 40-home-run upside. That is not the safest projection, but it is the best-case scenario that made him worth the swing for Minnesota.