Why One Analyst’s Prediction for Ty France Would Work for the Twins

A reunion would give Minnesota an everyday first baseman. The projected $32 million deal depends on how much room the Twins have left for catching and relief.

Former Minnesota Twins first baseman Ty France. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

MLB Trade Rumors analyst Anthony Franco predicted that the Minnesota Twins would sign free-agent first baseman Ty France. The site’s staff projected a two-year, $32 million deal for France, whom Minnesota traded to the Toronto Blue Jays at the 2025 deadline.

Ty France Would Give the Twins an Everyday First Baseman

Former Minnesota Twins first baseman Ty France. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With Josh Bell back in free agency, Minnesota has room for a bat at first base or designated hitter. Royce Lewis is the leading in-house option at first after hitting .227 with a .667 OPS in 2026. Signing France would let manager Derek Shelton rotate Lewis through DH and keep Kody Clemens in the mix at second base.

France hit .295/.363/.502 with 21 home runs for the San Diego Padres in 2026. He posted an .853 OPS against left-handed pitching and an .869 OPS against right-handers. That gives Shelton a hitter he can keep in the middle of the order regardless of who starts on the mound.

France won an American League Gold Glove in 2025 and led major league first basemen with 15 Defensive Runs Saved in 2026. That gives Minnesota a reason to keep him in the lineup through a slump and makes the second guaranteed year easier to justify.

What $32 Million Would Mean for Minnesota’s Payroll

San Diego Padres first baseman Ty France. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A two-year commitment means betting that some of France’s power gain will carry over. Statcast measured France’s average exit velocity at 91.5 mph in 2026, up from 89.5 mph the year before. His .421 expected slugging percentage still came in well below his actual .502 mark.

France hit seven home runs in 490 plate appearances in 2025 and turns 33 in July. At the projected price, Minnesota would need some of his new power to stick through 2028.

The projected deal averages $16 million a year, $6 million above the 2027 option Minnesota declined on Bell. France reached free agency without a qualifying offer, so the Twins could sign him and keep their draft picks.

If the deal is split evenly across both seasons and Ryan Jeffers accepts his one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer by Nov. 17, the two would account for $39.15 million in 2027. If Jeffers declines, Minnesota still has to pay for a starting catcher.

The club also needs left-handed relief with A.J. Minter and Taylor Rogers in free agency. Chairman Tom Pohlad has committed to raising payroll for 2027 and has yet to set a public target. Franco’s forecast works at two years and $32 million if that increase leaves enough room to cover catcher and add a left-hander to the bullpen.