Tom Verducci’s Awards Week Predictions

The likely winners of MLB’s individual hardware were all overlooked early in their careers. Plus, this year’s rookie class may be the deepest in league history.

Pete Crow-Armstrong had one of the best seasons in Cubs history. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This article is a part of Verducci’s View, a weekly baseball newsletter from Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci. Every Monday, Tom empties out his notebook over email and covers MLB’s hottest topics, provides in-depth analysis through both text and video breakdowns, looks forward to what’s worth watching during the week and more.

Welcome to Awards Week, when we are reminded on a nightly basis that baseball stardom can be hard to predict. 

Taking my best guesses at who will win the six non-rookie player awards from the BBWAA (including a new one this year, Reliever of the Year in each league), I found a common denominator: humble beginnings. Both MVPs were traded as teenagers and the four pitchers likely to win Cy Young and Reliever of the Year awards were all bypassed in the first round of the draft, waiting anywhere from two through seven rounds to be picked after playing at non-major college programs. Here are their long paths to greatness:

AL MVP: Yordan Alvarez, Astros

Traded by Dodgers at age 19 without playing an affiliated game.

NL MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs

Traded by Mets at age 19 after six games in A ball.

AL Cy Young Award: Cam Schlittler, Yankees

Seventh-round pick out of Northeastern after 219 players were picked.

NL Cy Young Award: Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers

Second-round pick out of Crowder Junior College after 62 players were picked.

AL Reliever of the Year: Bryan Baker, Rays

On fourth organization after starting as 11th round pick out of University of North Florida after 319 players were picked.

NL Reliever of the Year: Mason Miller, Padres

Third-round pick out of Gardner-Webb after 96 players were picked.

Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean won’t be named NL Rookie of the Year despite reaching thresholds that have historically portended the award. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Historic Rookie Class

Mets righthander Nolan McLean won 12 games with a 3.16 ERA and 194 strikeouts—becoming only the fifth rookie to reach such thresholds since 1969. The other four in Rookie of the Year voting all finished first (John Montefusco, Dwight Gooden and Hideo Nomo) or second (Kodai Senga). McLean? He could not even make the list of the three finalists.

Voters favored position players Carson Benge, Sal Stewart and JJ Wetherholt in NL ROY balloting.

The AL is just as deep. Look what happened to Chase DeLauter of the Guardians. He is only the ninth qualified rookie since 2015 to post an OPS+ of 131 or better. Each of the previous eight won the award! DeLauter is not even a finalist.

I keep pointing out that the rule changes and increase in velocity and spin over the past 5–10 years are making baseball more of a young man’s game. And this rookie class is more proof. We have never seen such a deep field of rookies.

Keep this in mind as the hot stove season unfolds. Teams are more likely than they were a decade ago to commit to a rookie than spend on mid-30s veterans as placeholders.

Seasons with Most Rookies with 3+ WAR

Year (Number)	Top Rookies
1. 2026 (9)	Kevin McGonigle, Carson Benge, Chase DeLauter
2. 2015 (8)	Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor
2. 2019 (8)	Pete Alonso, Yordan Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr.
4. 1982 (7)	Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken Jr., Ryne Sandberg
4. 1987 (7)	Mark McGwire, Benito Santiago, Devon White
4. 2018 (7)	Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres
4. 2023 (7)	Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, Yainer Diaz

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