Did Yankees Make Right Call on Cody Bellinger?

The New York Yankees brought Cody Bellinger back on a five-year, $162.5 million contract, ending months of negotiations. The deal includes opt-outs after both the 2027 and 2028 seasons, a $20 million signing bonus, and a full no-trade clause. It's the kind of move that looks either brilliant or disastrous depending on which version of Bellinger decides to show up over the next few years.

Bellinger spent two and a half months negotiating and initially pushed for a seven-year commitment worth more annually. The Yankees held firm on their five-year structure while adding sweeteners to get the deal done.

The decision came after Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers and Bo Bichette joined the Mets, shrinking Bellinger's market considerably. New York made it clear they weren't entering a bidding war, and Bellinger ultimately accepted their terms rather than risk waiting into February without a chair when the music stopped.

Oct 7, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger (35) hits a double in the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game three of the ALDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

On paper, this should work. Bellinger delivered exactly what the Yankees needed in 2025, hitting 29 home runs with 98 RBIs while slashing .272/.334/.480 across 152 games. His left-handed bat balanced a right-heavy lineup, and his defensive versatility gave manager Aaron Boone the flexibility to shuffle outfielders based on matchups. More importantly, he was an absolute monster at Yankee Stadium, posting a .909 OPS with a 152 wRC+ in the Bronx.

That's where the conversation gets complicated. Strip away the short porch in right field, and Bellinger's numbers tell a completely different story. His .715 OPS and 97 wRC+ on the road suggest he's a below-average hitter earning more than most All-Stars when he's not playing home games. The Yankees are essentially paying $32.5 million per year for a player whose production is heavily tied to their ballpark's dimensions.

The contract structure amplifies this risk. If Bellinger performs well, he opts out after two or three years and chases a bigger payday elsewhere. If he struggles or gets hurt, he stays and collects premium money through 2030. It's a lose-lose setup where New York might only get to keep him long-term if things go wrong, which feels backward for a franchise trying to maximize Aaron Judge's prime years.

His track record doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. Bellinger was so bad from 2020-2022 that the Dodgers non-tendered him despite being a homegrown talent.

He's bounced back twice now with the Cubs and Yankees, but his 2025 production tells a concerning story. His actual results outpaced what his quality of contact suggested by about 20 points, hinting at potential regression ahead.

But here's the thing, the Yankees didn't have better options. After losing Juan Soto to the Mets last winter, they desperately needed roster continuity. Bringing back the outfield combination of Judge, Trent Grisham, and Bellinger preserves the chemistry that carried them through 2025.

His defensive value can't be overstated either: 8 Defensive Runs Saved and 7 Outs Above Average while seamlessly moving between left, center, and right field. That versatility becomes crucial when building a roster around injury concerns and matchup advantages.

Does the Risk Match the Reward

The opt-outs provide some protection compared to the seven-year disasters that have burned this franchise before. If Bellinger maintains his 2025 form, the Yankees get two or three elite seasons from a proven winner who thrives in October. His postseason pedigree includes a World Series ring and multiple deep playoff runs, which matters when you're trying to win now rather than later.

The alternative was punting another offseason after missing out on other targets, and that wasn't going to fly with a fanbase already frustrated by the Soto loss.

The Yankees got a productive player who fits their ballpark and lineup construction. Whether he's worth $162.5 million depends on health, performance consistency, and whether those road numbers improve enough to justify the investment. The structure limits long-term disaster but also guarantees he leaves if everything goes right.

It seems to be a calculated gamble on a player whose career has been nothing but peaks and valleys since his MVP season six years ago.

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