Why the Yankees' Optimism Might Not Be Enough to Win AL East

The Bronx Bombers believe in themselves, but that might not be enough.

The Yankees feel there's a chance they can win the division despite being five games behind the Rays, but that doesn't change the reality of their situation. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Right now, the Yankees are five games back of the American League East-leading Rays. FanGraphs puts their chance of winning the division at 2.8% as of Sunday morning, and it looks like the Yankees will face the Red Sox in the Wild Card series again. The silver lining is that it will be at home in the Bronx, but for a team hoping to rectify some of the problems of 2025, they ended up in a worse position this year than last season.

Last season, the Yankees and Blue Jays finished tied, with the tiebreaker unfortunately going to Toronto. Unless the Yankees make noise against the Rays this week, they could end up further back this year.

If you were to ask some of the guys suiting up every day, though, they still think there's a chance at the AL East. They haven't given that dream up just yet. Cam Schlittler was vocal about it after the game.

"We've got to go on a good run," Schlittler said, according to MLB.com's Bryan Hoch. "It's going to be tough. I think we've had opportunities all season to put ourselves ahead, and we haven't done a great job of that. There's still a chance, but we've got to play our (butts) off a little bit."

Cody Bellinger conveyed a similar sentiment.

"Obviously, the goal is to win the division, rest your guys and get those off-days," Bellinger said, according to Hoch. "That's always goal number one. Ultimately, World Series champions have come out of the Wild Card. We'll keep on fighting."

Yankees' doing a complete turnaround this week feels like reversing course on the Titanic

Manager Aaron Boone also said that if the Yankees do end up sweeping the Rays, then it gets interesting. That is true, of course. If the Yankees make up a game on Sunday and then sweep Tampa in the upcoming series, the division would be tied heading into the final series with the Orioles. It all just feels improbable, and that also falls on Boone—especially after that loss to the Diamondbacks.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone deserves some blame for his team's long-shot odds of winning the AL East. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Instead of going to closer David Bednar with Saturday's game tied in the ninth, Boone opted for Michael Fulmer. If the thought behind that was keeping Bednar fresh for an upcoming series, or even the postseason, that signals a white-flag mentality and not that of a team that is still hoping to win a division.

This might sound like a glass-half-empty approach, but if the Yankees are going to win the division, they'll have to do two things. One is playing a cleaner brand of baseball, and that starts at shortstop. They haven't had much of that after George Lombard Jr.'s exciting first week. He has regressed defensively.

Next is sweeping a Rays team that not only doesn't lose but has gotten the better of the Yankees. New York is 3-6 against Tampa this year.

If the Yankees are going to win the division in the next week, they'll have to make a complete about-face, and they'll have to do it without their captain, Aaron Judge. It all feels a little improbable right now.

There's obviously a lane for them to win the division, but it's fair to be skeptical that they can.

Get Yankees On SI straight to your inbox: sign up for our free newsletter here.