How Does Tyler Herro's Injury Affect the Miami Heat's Win Projection

Austin Dobbins | Sep 19, 2025

Apr 11, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) brings the ball up court against the New Orleans Pelicans during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat entered the offseason with questions about how their roster would hold up after being embarrassed by the Cavs in the playoffs last year. Now those concerns have grown with the news that Tyler Herro is set to miss the start of the NBA season to undergo a procedure on his foot. The Heat had been projected for 36-39 wins, a total that already suggested a challenging year ahead, and Herro’s absence will make that number harder to reach.

His scoring punch and ability to create shots in late-game situations were central to Miami’s hopes of competing in an open Eastern Conference.

NEWS: Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro will miss time as he recovers from a procedure to his foot, multiple sources have told Five Reasons Sports and the Five on the Floor @5OTF_ podcast.

More information to come.

— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) September 19, 2025

Replicating Herro's scoring and ball handling is no easy task, especially when considering that he served as Miami’s primary ball handler in pick and roll actions with 7.4 possessions per game last season. That steady creation in the half court gave the Heat structure and spacing, elements that will be hard to duplicate.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra will be tested once again as he evaluates how to replace Herro’s minutes in the starting lineup. The biggest decision may come down to Kel’el Ware versus Nikola Jovic. Ware brings size and rim protection, offering a more traditional look that could ease pressure on Bam Adebayo defensively. Jovic gives Miami a stretch option with playmaking ability from the forward spot, but he is less consistent on the glass. Spoelstra has often leaned into versatility, but early in the season he may prefer stability, especially with one of his primary guards out.

This now shifts immense pressure to Miami's backcourt. Norman Powell may become the most important figure in the rotation during this stretch. Acquired to provide depth and instant offense, Powell will now be asked to emulate Herro’s scoring output. He has averaged double figures throughout his career and is capable of catching fire from three, but consistency will be the key. Miami does not need Powell to be Herro, but they do need him to stretch defenses and take pressure off Bam Adebayo.

For now, the expectation is that Davion Mitchell will slide into Herro’s spot. Mitchell is a strong defender who can pressure opposing guards, but his offensive skill set is limited compared to Herro. That puts more responsibility on others to pick up the scoring slack. Mitchell’s ability to keep the ball moving and hit open shots will be critical if the Heat want to avoid falling behind in the early standings.

The Heat’s culture has always been about resilience and adaptation, and Spoelstra has proven time and again that he can get the most out of shifting lineups. Still, losing Herro to start the season is a major blow. In 2024-25 the Heat went 0-5 without their star, a number that underlines how much they depend on his offense. That reality means Norman Powell cannot simply be a spark; he has to pick up Herro’s slack.

The offense just lost its most reliable shot creator, and without someone stepping into that role, Miami’s 39 game win projection could quickly slip out of reach. Miami must be around .500 when Herro returns, otherwise the Heat are staring at another play in matchup.

New ⁦@5OTF_⁩

Tyler Herro has surgery https://t.co/uTJMqoBwAi

— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) September 19, 2025

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