Numbers Don't Lie: Kon Knueppel is Your NBA Rookie of the Year, Not Cooper Flagg

The Charlotte Hornets' last season-long award winner was LaMelo Ball in 2020-21, winning the Rookie of the Year award. Kon Knueppel's up for that same award this year, but Cooper Flagg has been the favorite basically all season long. What do the numbers say?

Per 100 possessions numbers

Adjusting to per-100-possession numbers helps alleviate the workload disparity between the two. It bridges the gap between offensive styles, pace, and minutes. Kon Knueppel played two full minutes less per game than Cooper Flagg, which can make a substantial difference in averages.

Knueppel's metrics:

29.1 points
8.4 rebounds
5.3 assists
1.1 steals
0.4 blocks
3.1 turnovers

Flagg's:

29.6 points
9.4 rebounds
6.4 assists
1.7 steals
1.3 blocks
3.2 turnovers

Based on this, Flagg still has a slight advantage, although the difference in usage rate isn't factored in here. Flagg being the first option will certainly lead to more points and assists than Knueppel as the second or third option.

Advanced metrics

The advanced metrics paint a different picture, though. They look at a lot of different factors that should be helpful when picking between two electric rookies. They're not perfect, but it's far better than what we can glean from traditional metrics.

Knueppel:

119.2 offensive rating
113.0 defensive rating
6.2 net rating
63.3% true shooting
11.5 PIE
17.26 PER
245.9 Value Added
8.2 Expected Wins Added
127.1 points per 100 attempts

Flagg:

109.5 offensive rating
114.7 defensive rating
-5.2 net rating
54.8% true shooting
12.8 PIE
18.13 PER
256.3 Value Added
8.5 Expected Wins Added
109.8 points per 100 attempts

🎙️ @Sam_Vecenie: "I think that the awards body has gotten a little bit more analytical and like analytically inclined on these things, so I think Kon (Knueppel) is gonna win."

What do the analytics say? "Oh, it's like not even close. It's Kon. Like, not even in the ballpark." pic.twitter.com/HfTRftd4bc
— r/CharlotteHornets (@HornetsReddit) April 13, 2026

As Sam Vecenie put it above, Knueppel is pretty well clear in the advanced analytics world. Flagg notched a few key wins, though, that prevent it from being a runaway in this category, but Knueppel was better on both ends of the floor.

Team impact

Did Kon Knueppel make his team better? Did Cooper Flagg make his? The team records should hold no weight. They will, which is a feather in Knueppel's cap, but that's pretty much irrelevant. Flagg doesn't have LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

But there are numbers to see how each player individually impacted their teams. In this regard, the Hornets were 3.6 points better with Knueppel on the floor. That translated to eight more wins than expected, which got them into the Play-In.

The Mavericks were 1.2 points better with Flagg on the floor, which added three wins to their tally. That obviously matters, but it's clear the Hornets were better with Knueppel than the Mavericks were with Flagg.

Betting odds

The betting odds reflect the general feeling about a race, and according to SI's Peter Dewey, the general feeling is that Cooper Flagg is slightly ahead. He's still the favorite at -175 on DraftKings. Knueppel is +135, so it's tight.

So what does this all mean? It looks like Flagg might win the award, at least based on the odds. But the numbers don't lie. Knueppel should win it.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.